Gold and Silver Outlook 9-19-2014

Gold and silver continued their downturn today. Miners also got hit pretty hard. In lieu of today's Current Thoughts, which is nothing but the same bad news for gold and silver, please read my most recent article on the blog as to what's really going on with precious metals and the economy; Gold and Silver Feeling the Deflation Blues … [Read more...]

Gold and Silver Feeling the Deflation Blues

Credit Market as Percentage of GDP

If it looks like a duck and walks/quack/flies etc. like a duck, it is a duck! I have been one of the few out there who sell gold and speak of deflation. It's easy to talk about all the money printing the Fed does and cry inflation, but one has to see the price action and look at the bigger issue that many economists miss in their analysis of monetary policy; credit, and the unwinding of years of excess that is deflationary. Many have simply missed the credit contraction that has been occurring … [Read more...]

Gold and Silver Outlook 9-18-2014

9-18-2014 GLD Chart

While stocks break to new highs, gold and silver are still in a strong downward trend and today gave us no indication the pain is over. While all scores remained the same for GLD, SLV and GDX at -100, -100 and -70, it was still a topsy turvy day with jobs numbers coming in good but the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index came in lower and U.S. Housing starts fell 14.4% showing deflation is still in control. Gold hit a 3 month low one week ago and hasn't really looked like its found a bottom … [Read more...]

Gold and Silver Outlook 9-17-2014

9-17-2104 GLD Chart

Not only did we get the volatility related to the Fed meeting we got the continued down turn in gold and silver I expected today. While gold has still not broken below it's 2013 double bottom lows in the $1,190 range, silver has closed below the 2013 low. Silver is definitely showing that deflation is still in the air and that will be the subject of my next blog article. Both metals maintained their strong downtrend with a score of -100 while the mining stocks which have not yet broken their … [Read more...]

9-17-2014 Mid-day Fed Announcement Report

9-17-2014 Gold Price Volatility

As mentioned in yesterday's current thoughts, the Fed kept things status quo, tapering another $10 billion. Here is what I said about market makers and what they would do with the price of gold today. Tomorrow’s announcement will give us some insight into what will happen next with the metals. I’m not really looking for big change in what the Fed has to say and I will repeat, I am not expecting any moves higher in rates. This doesn’t mean that market makers, like they did today, will not try … [Read more...]

Gold and Silver Outlook 9-16-2014

9-16-2014 GLD Chart

As mentioned yesterday and again mid-day today with an update on gold posted, we saw some volatility in the precious metal pre-Fed announcement. There was a spread between the high and the low of $10 and a bounce higher only to settle just above the lows of the day as gold maintained its -100 score. Silver was a bit more buoyed as its score improved to -85. The miners had a nice bump mid-day but settled down in afternoon trading. Tomorrow's announcement will give us some insight into what … [Read more...]

9-16-2014 Mid-day Report

9-16-2014 GDX Mid-day

Looks like the mining stocks want to bounce here, with gold and silver bouncing off their most recent lows. I noted in last nights Current Thoughts that GDX had moved up a bit. If mining stocks lead gold, then this was a signal of a short term bottom. The overall stock market took a swing higher at the same time. This seems to be a strong reversal, but remember what I said about volatility the week of the Fed meeting. Today is the first day of the meeting with the results being announced … [Read more...]

Gold and Silver Outlook 9-15-2014

GLD Chart 9-15-2014

Gold got a little bounce today on India's imports doubling year over year to $2 billion. Silver edged up just a bit. The score for gold moved from -100 to -90 showing a little improvement (not a new trend) while silver stayed the same at -90, both mired in a strong downtrend. GDX though moved to a -70, showing a little sign of life for the miners. The 10 Year Treasury and Dollar were basically flat on this non-eventful day in preparation for the upcoming Fed meeting this week. I do expect … [Read more...]

Gold and Silver Outlook 9-12-2014

GLD Chart

Gold hit an 8 month low today while silver was a little more buoyed closing right where it bottomed in 2013. As such, gold is now rated -100 (it will stay here as long as the price keeps falling, and it not indicative of a time to go long). Silver stayed at -90 for the day. GDX fell from -60 to -70. As I mentioned before, the 2013 lows are still acting like a magnet, but silver showed some resilience at this level. Will gold too? As may long time readers know, I have been in the deflation … [Read more...]

Gold and Silver Outlook 9-11-2014

GDX Chart

Gold fell to a 7 month low and silver to a 14 month low today with their scores going from -60 to -90 respectively. Silver broke its 2013 intraday low but managed to close above it. The yellow metal hit a low of $1,233 before closing up $5 off the low, but still above its 2013 low in the $1,190's. I had said that these 2013 lows were like a magnet, drawing gold and silver to them and that seems to be what we are seeing. Interestingly enough, after breaking to lower lows intraday, the mining … [Read more...]