Gold Is Not in a Bear Market

Silver Chart 2011 Top

Just because gold has fallen in price from its highs the past 3 years doesn't mean that it's in a bear market. While you have read in many of my articles about the possibility of what a stronger dollar might do to gold I have also provided you with many of the indicators I follow so you can see the same things I see. But don't think for a moment any bearishness you may perceive I have has me negative on the future of gold. Don't believe for a moment that gold is in a bear market. 3 Phases of a … [Read more...]

Gold and Silver Outlook 9-29-2014

9-29-2014 GLD

Gold fell today after an early session higher but has not fallen below the closing low of $1,213.50 set a week ago. It still seems to me that it wants to break that 2013 low in the $1,190's. We simply aren't that far away from it and if we do break it, it could set up for a further decline in both gold and silver. The precious metals and mining stocks are all sitting now with a score of -100. This is as bearish as it can get and the falling knife is still sharp. The dollar was flat today … [Read more...]

Gold and Silver Outlook 9-26-2014

9-26-14 gdx

Gold prices fell again today on a stronger than expected GDP report and continued strength in the dollar. Silver managed to eek out a little bit of a gain. Mining stocks continued to take it on the chin. Gold and Silver Recap and Outlook    Gold has fallen 8.1% this quarter but is up 1.1% for the year still. Silver is down 9.5% for the year, clearly showing the effects of deflation. While today's GDP numbers were strong, and silver reacted positively to them, gold should continue to … [Read more...]

Gold and Silver Outlook 9-25-2014


Gold fell to an 8 month low today but rebounded mid-day. The scores for gold and silver stayed at -100. Was this the Bottom for Gold? Was this a turn up in gold from oversold conditions? Sure. One day does not a trend make, so we need to realize that upturns always come and we were due for a move higher. Unfortunately any upturn in precious metals will be followed by a test and break of the lows as I have been warning about. From the Trading Desk The USD has now extended a four year high … [Read more...]

Gold and Silver Outlook 9-24-2014

9-24-2014 GLD Chart

The correlation of the dollar moving higher and precious metals lower continued today as the dollar index breached 85 for the first time, a 4 year high. While this is only one of the indicators I follow in speculating what gold and silver might do next, it is one I give more emphasis to. US Economic Data Good New home sales surged in August and this was viewed as dollar bullish as well, further speculating that interest rates could be on the rise sooner than later (I disagree with … [Read more...]

Gold and Silver Outlook 9-23-2014

9-23-2014 GLD Chart

Gold and silver bounced today off their most recent lows with both scores moving from -100 to -90. Yesterday I said; "Mining stocks look like a double bottom and it wouldn't surprise me to see a bounce coming" and today we saw GDX move up 1.62% and JNUG up 7.67%. I again only view these types of trades as short term scalps and not a buy and hold opportunity at this point in time. As I said, bounces come and they can be taken advantage of with the right instruments, but typically the triple … [Read more...]

Gold and Silver Outlook 9-22-2014

9-22-2014 GLD Chart

Both precious metals ended up lower again today as the knife keeps falling and no one is daring to grab it. Gold and silver maintained their -100 scores. Some say China had something to do with it as they dampened stimulus hopes just because recent data has been week. Home sales also fell. Mining stocks look like a double bottom and it wouldn't surprise me to see a bounce coming. I wouldn't go large shares by any means, but on a dip tomorrow it may make sense for a trade. In markets like this … [Read more...]

Gold and Silver Outlook 9-19-2014

Gold and silver continued their downturn today. Miners also got hit pretty hard. In lieu of today's Current Thoughts, which is nothing but the same bad news for gold and silver, please read my most recent article on the blog as to what's really going on with precious metals and the economy; Gold and Silver Feeling the Deflation Blues … [Read more...]

Gold and Silver Feeling the Deflation Blues

Credit Market as Percentage of GDP

If it looks like a duck and walks/quack/flies etc. like a duck, it is a duck! I have been one of the few out there who sell gold and speak of deflation. It's easy to talk about all the money printing the Fed does and cry inflation, but one has to see the price action and look at the bigger issue that many economists miss in their analysis of monetary policy; credit, and the unwinding of years of excess that is deflationary. Many have simply missed the credit contraction that has been occurring … [Read more...]

Gold and Silver Outlook 9-18-2014

9-18-2014 GLD Chart

While stocks break to new highs, gold and silver are still in a strong downward trend and today gave us no indication the pain is over. While all scores remained the same for GLD, SLV and GDX at -100, -100 and -70, it was still a topsy turvy day with jobs numbers coming in good but the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index came in lower and U.S. Housing starts fell 14.4% showing deflation is still in control. Gold hit a 3 month low one week ago and hasn't really looked like its found a bottom … [Read more...]