Gold and Silver Current Thoughts 3-30-2015

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We will continue to provide Current Thoughts on the economy and the gold and silver markets here 5 days a week.

…On to the markets…

Gold fell below that $1,190 mark today and hit as low as $1,183 but couldn’t break down lower. While I said yesterday that I would become bearish again if we broke below the $1,190 level, many of those that I read say that gold will begin to move up soon. This does fit with a historical pattern of the “good summer months” and is not out of the question. Gold is presently at $1,186.10 and could indeed move higher, but I’ll let the market tell me that and I wouldn’t get bullish until we moved over $1,200 resistance again. Then a play in JNUG would make sense. Some may want to trade JNUG on a higher high tomorrow though. The safe play would be over 18.14, but if we gap down in the morning and break higher, I would be all over it. If this is the case, then JNUG would move to 19-20 then 22 again. If it broke 23 it would then see the 25 to 30 range.

JDST had a move from the mid 9’s to 12 and 13.54 would be the next stop if we do see gold fall below $1,183 down to test the $1,148 level again. I don’t put as high a probability on this as present.

Regarding gold, I’ll say it again and again; this is not the low that I have been waiting for. Any move higher would be a dead cat bounce and we will hit lower lows. So I only give the higher calls by some a 60/40 chance now as I still see pressure on gold. For gold to get to these higher levels over the short term, some of the data that comes out this week abroad has to improve the attractiveness of the Euro and get the dollar to fall from its current level of 97.98. Please let the dollar short term moves guide you with gold and confirm the next move. Same goes for silver.

Is there a chance that the dollar can climb and gold/silver climb with it? Yes, but I don’t put as much belief in that pattern occurring as it is not a normal pattern. It does occur sometimes, but not that often. I like trades that give me good patterns. We’ll find out soon enough what direction it goes, but I wanted to give a wider picture as to what I see as potential and which way I lean over the next few months.

With the new edition of my Current Thoughts I will be talking more about my indicators and getting a little more technical with them and what I see. One of those indicators of course being the phone ringing for my suppliers which is not presently the case and one of the main reasons why I give lower prices a 40% chance (but I give a 99% chance of the Nov. 5^th low of $1,132 being taken out at some point).

The story of the day was the big move in stocks with the DOW up close to 300 points at one point. TNA was up 3.62% to close at 90.18. I said yesterday that if it could move over 88 it would run to 92. TNA hit a high of 91.05. Not a bad move for one day for those that caught it. Next up would be the 52 week high of 93.37 and after that another nice run. Please look for data this week to see if there is any potential negative news. I wrote about the data coming out this week and posted a calendar in Sunday’s Current Thoughts.  

SVXY continued up with the strong stock market closing at 69.74 or up 2.97%. UVXY close to breaking below its 52 week low of 14. We want that to eventually set us up for a potentially really big move once the stock market peaks (when it finally does).

DGAZ had another small day up to continue the trend and I would still be long and strong until Thursday’s report. Next stops would be 8.22 and the 3 month high of 9.07 which could be hit soon if we get a negative report on Thursday. Things warming up all over and the heaters are turned off.

UWTI fell from the open and then rebounded a bit but never got anything going. DWTI would have also been a tough one to trade. If you did go long in the afternoon on a higher high, you would have got stopped out on that quick fall. These things happen and are part of trading.

RUSL was actually a star today, up 11.71%. It was a steady climb up and it would have been difficult to trade a higher high as we never got a real pullback. RUSL needs a move above 23.15 for a breakout. It may do it this time as long as the U.S. markets are in bull mode. 24 and 25.17 are the next stops before a real nice move would come. But we have been here before. Meanwhile RUSS is under 12 again where it has been a good buy for a trade many times. Trade the short term trend and watch for a reversal in keeping a stop.