Dave Portnoy Says Stocks Always Go Up – Day Trader vs Investor vs Market Timer

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How To Profit In Up and Down Markets

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Stocks Always Go Up – A case study of Davey Day Trader Global Dave Portnoy

Most are not prepared for any downturn in the markets, just like they weren’t prepared for the last major crash that had financial advisors scrambling for answers. This is because most financial advisors just say buy and hold. Not only that, but a certain generation is convinced stocks only go up.

Dave Portnoy is part of that generation. He is the inventor of Barstool Sports and is known for making large wagers on sporting events. He also does some good things in helping out the community and I admire him for that. But his reach into the unknown area of investing he makes one big mistake. He says that “stocks always go up.” You can see it in the poster behind him here.

Dave Portnoy has a bunch of groupies who believe everything Portnoy says. He also has an ego in my opinion that can be dangerous for investors. If one is convinced that the market only moves one way, then when the market doesn’t go that direction, emotions get involved. I pointed that out in an article I wrote on Seeking Alpha about Dave Portnoy calling for Wall Street individuals should go to jail for what they did to meme stocks 3.5 years ago. The meme stocks he was invested in were getting slaughtered and he sold for huge losses. He simply did not have a plan.

Trading Your Plan Not Others

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Portnoy, who was at the time doing videos in the morning and afternoon as Davey Day Trader, stopped the trading videos after that meltdown on 4/20/20 and recently came back to doing videos on Rumble again in 2024 as the market was moving higher.

Portnoy came back and reinvented himself as DDTGG (Davey Day Trader Global Global – two global’s because one is not enough) but technically it looks like he goes by DDTG only.

The Anatomy of a Day Trader or Investor and Now Knowing What You Are – Case Study Spirit Airlines Trade by Dave Portnoy

Dave Portnoy was touting Spirit Airlines on 1/23/24 and said “we fly in this country” as a reason to hold.  He said he put a mega buy on Spirit airlines at $4. That day it was up 5% more to 8.40 and closed the day at 8.23. The next day he did an episode and said Spirit is down 14% right now. He said, “did I think it was going to do that, no. I don’t love it but I’m not panicking. Did I expect a pullback today? No. Does it shock me? No. Do I think it will bounce back? Yes.” He did go on to say “if you want to get out of Spirit, get out. I’m not even thinking of getting out.”  He also put a buy on TSLA that day and it went down.

He didn’t do a video for another 5 days and in that video he said, Spirit had gone way down to 6 and that “I still love it.” It went up to 7 on day of earnings February 6, 2024 and he was saying he still loves it. He said he thought Spirit “was going to crush earnings and have a very positive outlook.” Spirit’s revenue was as expected but down 5% and their adjusted loss per share improved from ($1.46) to ($1.36). On 2/12/24 his next podcast he said he likes Spirit. It closed at 6.72. 2/22 he was saying he was still in Spirit with it closing at 6.46. At the open of the video he said “Spirit is down 2%, come on spirit,” like a cheerleader. He was still a spirit fan on 2/28/24 closing at 6.49. Next report on 3/4/24, he said I will not surrender. I will go down with the ship. His banner in the back says “Don’t give up the ship.” Spirit was trading at 5.50 saying it can make a big move back up to 7. It closed at 5.76.  The next report on 3/12/24  Portnoy admitted Spirit is a disaster. Said he “loves it at this price.” Spirit closed at 4.60. On 3/14/24 Portnoy was on 2 days later saying he bought more Spirit. It closed at 4.31. He actually let it slip, “I rebought Spirit,” which could be a Freudian slip in the sense that he never said he sold it. 3/18 He was saying he was still in Spirit and that “it cannot get lower.” It closed at 4.28. 3/27/24 Still bullish Spirit calling it to go over 5. Spirit closed at 4.62.  4/1 he Spirit is ripping. He said pile into this thing. He was still up from where he bought it at 4.00. It closed at 4.84. On 4/12 stocks took a hit. He said his entire portfolio was red, red, red except for one stock. NKE. Only said Spirit was down a little bit. In fact, it is approaching where he originally bought it. He said to a commenter, “I don’t have any must buy stock right now, no.” What happened to “pile into this thing” when it was at 4.63? Spirit closed at 4.18. 4/17 Portnoy still long Spirit. He said he was “losing money lately, hand over fist.” He said he was up $2 million on Celsius, another stock he was touting, and gave it all back. He said spirit at 4.15, ugh. Spirit closed at 4.11. On 4/23, Spirit closed at 3.79 below his original buy price. He said he loves it, still owns it, it’s not going away. 5/13/24 Portnoy hadn’t done a video on trading in 3 weeks.  Spirit stock sank to 3.18 a 20.49% decline from his entry and 61% decline of 61.45%. Spirit closed at 4.39.

I didn’t watch anymore videos from Portnoy to see if he finally sold Spirit or is still a believer in the company. Spirit stock never got to over 8 again since that earnings report in February of 2024 and today it’s price per share is 2.58 and down 84% for the year.

Portnoy’s caveat to “stocks always go up” is that he adds to that statement, “if you have the time and in it for the long run.” How did that work out for Spirit? There are 65 rows of stocks that have been losers that last 5 years listed here. How do you know what to buy? Or do you just buy the stock market and sit through any bear markets watching your portfolio go down each week?

A simple 6% trailing stop would have netted Portnoy and those listening to him to lock in much more profit.

I give Portnoy credit that he didn’t chase the GME and AMC type meme stocks when they started to go nuts on 5/13/24. He said I already lost $700,000 on them and didn’t want to trade them again. But the gambler he is, he put in an order for $500,000 of GME and AMC. He was up over $700k. He said “you have to sell it” but he was looking for a profit of $1 million. He picked a number out of thin air rather than analyze the stocks. Then the stocks were halted and he was calling “bullsh*t, bullshi*t.” He was back to his emotional self where he lost $700,000. Greed takes hold rather than common sense. Then you end up even possibly losing on the trade, like with Spirit.

I wanted to analyze a trader’s style and Portnoy made a comment on a post I made on his Rumble video yesterday. In the video, I am mywayfrank that he refers to.

 

It’s ok for me to be mocked by Dave Portnoy as he doesn’t quite understand how to trade. He has no rules. I have made every mistake in trading and that is why I wrote my book, so you don’t make the same mistakes.

Are You a Day Trader, Investor or Market Timer? 

You have to know what kind of trader you are and what your profit goals and stops are for each and every trade you make. In my book, I go into many trading rules you need to follow, rather than following some day trader guru on the internet who only thinks one direction. You have to have your own trading plan and simply work your plan. I prefer being a market timer overall with stated profit goals and stop losses set so you can go about your day and enjoy life. I take the human out of trading. An emotional human, like was shown with Dave Portnoy above, can wreak havoc to a portfolio if you don’t take profit when it is there for the taking.

Tomorrow we have Fed interest rate decision. Expect some volatility. We should see some direction in the markets take hold between now and election. After the election, the stocks always go up mantra will not work and you must have a plan. I would incorporate that plan even today. Gold and silver should take off even higher post Fed and after the election. I’ve been right about gold and silver and I believe the attitude to have moving forward with stocks is, “I don’t care if stocks go up or down as long as I am on the right side of the trade.”

Looks like yesterday Dave Portnoy put on his @stoolpresidente X account the rant he made about stocks always going up. I didn’t see it till I went to his X account just now. Of course I replied with a link to this article. 🙂

“Someone tell this guy what the core tenet of #DDTG is.”

Someone tell this guy what the core tenet of #DDTG is pic.twitter.com/PzT2Erlx5H

— Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) September 16, 2024

You can see my reply in the screen shot below just in case he erases it.