Current Thoughts 3/14/2018

We have to be careful with TVIX tomorrow as it is 3 days up in a row in the hot corner. I have said before if we somehow got 4, and it has only happened once in the past year, TVIX would be it. And to be honest, if we got 4, Friday might be hell on earth for the markets and 5 could even come. I prefer a little bounce in the market as a natural occurrence and we buy that dip in TVIX possibly half shares at a time. Same with SQQQ. Can you play TQQQ and SVXY in the morning? Possibly. I am concentrating on buying what I have more faith in. And by the way, we made up for last weeks trades in TVIX so back on track for a wonderful year trading what I think can do well for all of us.

Side Note: I could easily be making calls with RUSS, YANG, BZQ, FAZ and LABD, but I find when I cut down on my having to type in so much and concentrate on fewer ETFs, my calls improve. I know I have made comments in the nightly report on the first 3, but LABD also looks like a winner with a good potential run ahead of it with any downturn come Friday. I would buy if positive. LABU is red on the weekly and so is FAZ and BRZU. I sure wish BZQ was 3X and not 2X.

YINN bucked the upward trend today of the short foreign markets that we have experienced, but not by much. Come Friday, RUSS, YANG and BZQ should all be in play.

DWT we took a gamble and held through the data today and it paid off. We also took profit near the highs and as it started to fall closed out the deal. DRIP we profited on too, but it sure is stubborn. At some point it will blast off so we’ll keep an eye on it and DWT still. Oil under 60 is what I would like to see.

We caught a break holding DGAZ overnight and sold near the highs half shares too. That 2.71 is support and we just couldn’t bust through it. We will be back again long DGAZ soon enough as UGAZ has turned red on the weekly.  A move to 2.60 is in the cards minimum.

We took a stab at JDST as our only loser today. Gold was down and dollar up and I thought that actually meant something. I still think it does despite the price action today. JNUG eventually moved lower after faking everyone out during the day.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

About Doug Eberhardt

Doug Eberhardt is a 28 year financial services veteran and precious metals broker selling gold and silver at 1% over wholesale cost. Doug has written a book to help investors understand how gold and silver fit into a diversified portfolio, how to buy gold and silver, and what metals to buy. The book; “Buy Gold and Silver Safely” is available by clicking here Contact phone number for Buy Gold and Silver Safely is 888-604-6534

Disclosure:

Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with capital you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Purchase/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve gains or losses similar to those discussed in this outlook. The past track record of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc. discussed in this outlook and the product materials are for illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations. All ideas and material presented are entirely those of the author.