Gold is still flirting with the $1,200 mark opening up below it and then rallying to go above before giving $5 back and settling in at $1205. Silver followed the same path. JDST was the morning play when it broke to a higher high over $19.45, It went just over $22 and then broke down to close at $18.46. At that time the play became JNUG had a nice midday rise that could have been played. It was trading around 2.62 and shot straight up to 3.18 and went as high as 3.34. If you haven’t traded JNUG long yet, and as long as gold stays above $1,200, then JNUG I think is still worth a shot tomorrow over 3.34 with stops.
GLD and SLV still have a weekly green triangle but the miners are red.
The dollar has been over 89 on the index but is struggling to get past 90. Keep an eye on the dollar and if it breaks below 89 then unlike last week when the dollar dropped and gold also fell, this week we may get the good trade with the miners as long as gold wants to move higher. Perhaps tomorrow.
Because the Euro represents the majority of the dollar, it too is at the trendline. My friend from Switzerland sent me this chart to show exactly where we are. If the Euro has a technical bounce, then the dollar will fall and gold should rise along with the miners.
We’ll see what shakes tomorrow. Something will!
UGAZ was a disappointment for me last week. I got out on the nice run up on Friday with a little profit but today it fell hard to new 52 week lows. If you are swinging this ETF, then you might have to wait till January to get some profit from it. The last 3 week storage reports have been bullish for UGAZ but the weather also has been a bit warmer than normal and the forecasts are for more of this warmth to linger across the country. This is a link to the animated jet stream forecast which shows that warmer weather is still with us for the next couple weeks. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?h500_xtnd+/// From my meteorologist friend; “You don’t have to understand completely but if the troughs become blueish in color than the airmass is turning cold, the warmer reddish color will be warmer. This can at least give you a feel for trends in temperatures that are expected. Of course a two week forecast is not set in stone.” DGAZ was the play today and I wish I would have posted Sunday this info and apologize for not getting it to you sooner. I am presently long UGAZ but should have been long DGAZ and for those who look at my triangles, DGAZ is the one that is green on the weekly, NOT UGAZ. But if you are swinging UGAZ, I still think you’re ok. I know many people in one of the trading rooms I follow that are dollar cost averaging into a position at this time.
TZA was a good play today as the stock market finally got some jitters. It was up about 3.5% and we possibly could finally see some weakness in stocks. This could play over to the gold miners too, so be leary of the overall market trend.
USO and oil are still in the toilet.
Deflation is everywhere.
12-08-14 GLD CHART
12-08-14 SLV CHART
12-08-14 GDX CHART
12-08-14 GDXJ CHART
12-08-14 JNUG CHART
12-08-14 JDST CHART
12-08-14 NUGT CHART
12-08-14 DGAZ CHART
12-08-14 UGAZ CHART
12-08-14 TZA CHART
12-08-14 USO CHART
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About Doug EberhardtDoug Eberhardt is a 28 year financial services veteran and precious metals broker selling gold and silver at 1% over wholesale cost. Doug has written a book to help investors understand how gold and silver fit into a diversified portfolio, how to buy gold and silver, and what metals to buy. The book; “Buy Gold and Silver Safely” is available by clicking here Contact phone number for Buy Gold and Silver Safely is 888-604-6534
Disclosure:
Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with capital you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Purchase/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve gains or losses similar to those discussed in this outlook. The past track record of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc. discussed in this outlook and the product materials are for illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations. All ideas and material presented are entirely those of the author.