SLV was the star today as the weekly triangle turned up. This technically is a bullish sign for silver but GLD and the miners; GDX, JNUG and GDXJ have not confirmed. Also technically JDST still is in a short term and long term green arrow up. This is rather conflicting and at best a difficult time to be 100% bullish. For those who have more risk tolerance and know hot to keep stops, then a long play in silver may be appropriate.
NOTE: Any bullishness is short term. I do expect another turn down in precious metal prices.
From the Trading Desk
Despite the shortened trading week in the US with the Thanksgiving holiday, volume on the electronic exchange remains strong for the precious metals. The US economy grew faster than anticipated in the third quarter with both consumer spending and business investment showing strength. The combined growth of the second and third quarters represents the best six month stretch for the US economy since 2003. US equities are at all time highs, unemployment is below 6%, and home prices continue to rebound. Even with the positive US economic news out today, the euro has managed to reclaim ground against the USD though. The market is very long the USD with CFTC data showing that net bullish speculators have hit a record $48 billion. The USD could be in for a correction as the year comes to a close.
Gold continues to challenge the $1,200 barrier but has yet to close above it. A bullish euro move would allow for gold to press higher from current levels. Should gold close above $1,200, $1,250 would be the near term target. Silver formed a solid base at $16 and has traded higher in four consecutive trading sessions now. Resistance is coming in at the 50 day moving average of $16.90.
I had said in yesterday’s report that the markets might be a little choppy and the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq ended up mixed but still near records for the former two. I am still eyeing TZA as a very nice trade once we get to Friday’s or next week’s trading. But the GDP report today has still put this thinking on hold.
UGAZ bounced a bit higher today while DGAZ took a break to settle back below $3.00. I still lean a bit bullish with the colder weather being part of the reason why.
USO never did get past that $29.19 price I spoke of yesterday and went the opposite direction showing more weakness hitting another 52 week low. It might be close to a “buy the dip” timeframe.
There will be no Current Thoughts Outlook on Gold and Silver tomorrow but there will be again on Sunday. Enjoy your Thanksgiving Holiday!
11-25-14 GLD CHART
11-25-14 SLV CHART
11-25-14 GDX CHART
11-25-14 JDST CHART
11-25-14 USO CHART
11-25-14 JNUG CHART
11-25-14 GDXJ CHART
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About Doug EberhardtDoug Eberhardt is a 28 year financial services veteran and precious metals broker selling gold and silver at 1% over wholesale cost. Doug has written a book to help investors understand how gold and silver fit into a diversified portfolio, how to buy gold and silver, and what metals to buy. The book; “Buy Gold and Silver Safely” is available by clicking here Contact phone number for Buy Gold and Silver Safely is 888-604-6534
Disclosure:
Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with capital you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Purchase/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve gains or losses similar to those discussed in this outlook. The past track record of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc. discussed in this outlook and the product materials are for illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations. All ideas and material presented are entirely those of the author.