From the Trading Desk
A variety of headlines out last night and today have had the ultimate net effect of leaving the precious metals hovering around the unchanged closing level from yesterday. News out of Russia indicates that Russian President Putin has agreed on the withdrawal of heavy artillery from the Crimea region and that a ceasefire will be in place starting on February 15th. On the central bank front, the Bank of Japan stated that any extra stimulus would be “counterproductive for now” while the Swedish Central bank cut rates and pledged quantitative easing. Retails sale in the US were soft and the USD index is down as a result.
Since failing three times to decisively break through $1,300 in mid-late January, gold has been on a one way trajectory lower. This past Friday’s strong US jobs data and subsequent poor technical close for gold has caused traders to add to short positions this week. Gold has held its 100 day moving average over the past two trading days but should this key level fail, $1,180 is the next major target.
Gold traded at one point over $1,230 today but gave most of it back before falling to a lower low and then trending a little bit higher the rest of the day. Gold is up $4.50 after hours. Silver followed the same path as gold trading above $17 for a short time before trending the rest of the day.
All of the metal miners followed suit and there wasn’t much tradeable today. Look for a long tomorrow on a higher high barring any economic news. It seems that gold and silver are trading along with economic news of the day at present. I want to see a clear path in one direction now before I play either side. Bounces occur and today it tried, but failed showing the bear is still in control.
With that news out of Ukraine/Russia, RUSL perked up today and I no longer lean towards RUSS, even though S&P still view Russia as junk. Look for a higher high above 26.05 to go long RUSL.
TNA moved above 82 today and is trying to break out. We are now green on the monthly, weekly and today daily, so I will lean long.
DGAZ gave us the higher high that I said yesterday to look for and should have been bought at a break of 7.11. The storage report was bearish and it shot up. Even if you missed that run, it could have still been bought at the second higher high at 7.44 for a run to 7.89. DGAZ closed at 7.59. I will lean long DGAZ at this point in time. Usually when we get this kind of negative storage report we trend in that direction for a bit.
DWTI could have been played long at 106.46 for a run to 113.70 with profit taken any time. But it did break down. If there is a play tomorrow, it will probably be UWTI if the trend continues with a trade above 3.55, the high of the day. UWTI closed at 3.48 and traded to 3.50 after hours. Look to see if it gaps up and wait for a pullback and play the higher high. DWTI you can also look for the higher high, but it is 10 points below the high of the day. I lean towards UWTI based on price action today.
I was quoted recently in AARP Magazine online in an article on gold and in another article from Bankrate.com on silver. I will post to my blog tomorrow a synopsis of the articles.
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Doug Eberhardt is a 28 year financial services veteran and precious metals broker selling gold and silver at 1% over wholesale cost. Doug has written a book to help investors understand how gold and silver fit into a diversified portfolio, how to buy gold and silver, and what metals to buy. The book; “Buy Gold and Silver Safely” is available by clicking here Contact phone number for Buy Gold and Silver Safely is 888-604-6534
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