Gold and Silver Current Thoughts 2-11-2015

 

Gold fell today to a one month low of $1220.70 while silver settled down 0.7% to $16.77 today as the dollar gained 0.2% the Euro. Europe is still deciding what to do with Greece as it can set a precedent for other countries that are struggling; Italy, Spain and Portugal. My personal opinion is to just let Greece go on its own. They were nothing but trouble since the first bailout and have been nothing but trouble since (no offense to any individual nationality intended).  I personally don’t think the European Union will take this route.

As many readers know I have been calling for lower lows in gold and silver for a while now. I know it’s not easy to hear this, naturally, but we are only about $75 from the 2013 low in gold, so it’s not that farfetched. If we do break to a lower low, then a break of $1,000 that I have been calling for is in the cards. As such, mining stocks, which are already turning red on the weekly, will turn red on the monthly too, and those who bought mining stocks thinking we are at a bottom may be in for a rude awakening just like they had last year (unfortunately).

Richard Russell taught me years ago do not ignore price action. As much as their may be trillions of reason as to why gold should skyrocket, if the price is going against you, one can’t ignore this. Similarly, if the S&P for example keeps breaking higher highs and you’re short, you can’t ignore the higher highs even though eventually you know a big fall is coming. For gold and silver, perhaps a hedge is a wise idea if you are long and the market is telling you something different.

UGAZ was the star of the day today but most of the upswing of 13.97% occurred pre-market so you might not have been able to take advantage of it. I said yesterday that I lean long and nothing has changed. That being said, after the run up pre-market, it was a somewhat flat day today and if we are going to have a reversal, look to DGAZ for a higher high tomorrow to trade.

Oil fell about $2 from this morning to the time the supply report came through today. It was an up and down day today but the DWTI move over 100 yesterday went all the way up to 125 today for anyone who held it. Hopefully you took some profit home with you. DWTI closed at 116 and I would look to go long UWTI if we get a reversal (not my preferred choice) above 3.27 with tight stops.

Anyone that got into RUSS yesterday could have sold for a profit this morning and then jumped on RUSL which got a boost from Putin talks with Ukraine leaders as it hit a higher high at 21.16 and went all the way up to 23.28 before closing at 22.48. Lots of profit to be had as that was a nice spike up off the bottom at 11:07am EST.

JDST could have been played today for a higher high at 8.80 all the way to 9.38, closing at 9.30. I would move stops up to 9.04 if long. JDST got a daily green today. Look for the weekly green next. As I said yesterday, gold miners never were a long and they weren’t today either. We are clearly in a bearish mode for the metals and this is where real good money can be made, but always look for reversals.

Gold had a weekly red triggered, GDX a weekly red and GDXJ a daily red. Not looking good. That said, news can come that triggers these at some point. But I would be fast with profit on any longs now as I think the trend lower has definitely taken a strong hold. Trade with the trend please. Need to see gold below $1,200 and silver, which held up decently today, below $16.50.

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Gold and Silver Stock Mining Package