Mining stocks are definitely leading gold at this point in time. The weekly arrows are now green for all of the mining ETFs. JNUG was the first to go green on Dec. 30th and NUGT and GDX turned green today. Does this mean that everyone should go long the miners? It might be worth a shot but gold is still struggling with the $1,200 mark moving above and below it. I would like to see gold confirm to be confident that the miners are in play for a trade.
While miners may be in play, this does not change my thinking on the possibility of a further decline in gold and thus the miners. There may be some safe haven buying from those in Europe as the Euro declines and those in Russia as they experience their issues, and even from Japan as the Yen weakens. But gold is not readily available for those in these countries. Not like here in the U.S. When U.S. citizens start buying gold again, you’ll know. As of right now, they are not. In fact for 2014, gold sales were down at the U.S. Mint.
If the miners make higher highs tomorrow, then they will be worth a trade. If not, look for JDST which just turned red in all categories, daily, weekly and monthly for a reversal trade. JDST though is now the “catch a falling knife trade” as it approaches its 52 week low in the $8 range.
TZA continued to move higher today and has been a good trade. I suggested to sell today’s bounce and see if the selling is over. We’ll find out tomorrow. TZA daily did turn green, but would like to see a weekly green before having any conviction of a swing trade at this point. TNA has fallen from the Dec. 29th high of 83.95 to its current price of 76.52. Tough to trade either one now, but look for the one that reaches a higher high before going long.
UGAZ I said yesterday that it would be a time to get out on this bounce if you were long and profitable and it turned out to be good advice. UGAZ was trading at 4.91 pre-market and opened at 4.61 and just couldn’t get it together to move any higher. I had said that DGAZ might be the play and it was. While UGAZ closed lower at 3.97 after hitting another 52 week low, DGAZ moved from an open of 6.74 to close at 7.79 with a high of 8.28. Volume was down though. Trade the higher high of the two tomorrow, but I am leaning towards DGAZ over UGAZ at this point. You would think that with the issues in Russia and the cold sweeping America that caused Natural Gas to gap up would be sustainable, but alas, it was not.
RUSL lost more today and would still like to see it get closer to 10 before jumping in. It is sitting at 15.55 now.
UWTI along with oil got slammed some more. UWTI was down 16% today with oil approaching the $50 mark. If we do get a bounce off the $50 mark in oil, look for a trade long in UWTI if it can get past the $4.20 mark, today’s high.
Doug Eberhardt is a 28 year financial services veteran and precious metals broker selling gold and silver at 1% over wholesale cost. Doug has written a book to help investors understand how gold and silver fit into a diversified portfolio, how to buy gold and silver, and what metals to buy. The book; “Buy Gold and Silver Safely” is available by clicking here Contact phone number for Buy Gold and Silver Safely is 888-604-6534
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