Gold and Silver Current Thoughts 1-19-2015

Interesting thought as I type these Current Thoughts on Monday afternoon is the following; Why has there been no movement in precious metals since Asia opened for trading? Answer: because there was a 3 day holiday in the U.S. and the U.S. market is what makes the metals market tick. Unless of course there is some mysterious seller that brings the metals market down during thin trading in Asia, which has happened a couple times in the last year.

Yes, the U.S. price of gold moves based on U.S. data and while buying gold in Yen or Euro has been a good trade, it matters not to the majority of those who buy physical gold and silver.

We are still in an uptrend in gold and silver but gold seems to be struggling with the $1,280 mark while silver made a nice move through $17 and has seemed to find some resistance at $17.80. I would use a break of those levels to see whether the trade is long or not. If we do break those levels, then I would look for the mining stock ETFs to continue their march higher.  Support for gold is at $1,230.10 and for silver $16.77.

One can’t ignore the weekly arrow turned up in silver and gold is now in a monthly green trend. Move stops up if you are long.

The U.S. dollar is trading in the mid-92’s and is something to keep an eye on this week as the Euro awaits news from the ECB as to how much QE will be implemented. I think it might be “sell the news” and a possible bump higher in the Euro and by default a slight decline in the dollar which could benefit gold and silver for the short term.

Not really an easy short term market to call so the best advice is to not guess which way it will go but trade the direction It goes. If you find yourself guessing, as a trader, and you guess wrong, simply keep a stop and change your trading plan.

It was a choppy day for the mining ETFs on Friday as they too look for direction. If JDST trades above $8.18 I would attempt a long. Otherwise look for a break of Friday’s high in GDX, GDXJ, NUGT or JNUG to go long. One can’t ignore that GDX is now green on the monthly. This would make one lean long still the miners, but keep an eye on JDST for the alternative in what may be a volatile week with the ECB announcements coming on the 22nd.

Other ETFs

In Thursday’s Current Thoughts I said; “ I lean towards DGAZ again at this point.” DGAZ gapped up, fell to $5.46 and closed at $6.10. Would have been difficult to trade, but higher it went from Thursday’s close. A break of $6.39 can be traded long. Otherwise a higher high after the open for UGAZ is the play.

Thursday I also said that “Oil seems to have resumed it’s fall, but is showing signs of a bottom. Look for higher highs on UWTI if that’s the case.” UWTI was up 13.47% for the day.

For TNA I said on Thursday, “I thought we might get a run up towards the 80 mark again and would still go long any higher high.” We got the higher high at $72.22 and it closed at $74.61. We will see if we get the move back to 80 again like I have been wanting. Will the ECB announcements wreak hav

RUSL was up 9.68% but still a tough one to go long. I would be conservative and possibly look for a buy in the $15.50 range again, or lower, preferably in the $10 range.

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