Today you are receiving a peak into my thoughts for the coming Fed Meeting announcement on interest rates that is coming Friday Sept. 17th. Expect a wild and crazy week. My expectations for the Fed and the markets are below.
On Friday 9/11 I sent out a morning update where I said the following; “Dollar up a little and gold down about $5 with JNUG down at the open about 17 cents. Will keep a close eye and a stop if we get a continuation and play another day at this point. The 52 week low would be my signal to keep a hard stop no matter what at 6.48. Market makers like to take out 52 week lows and reverse direction so I have to be leary of this as well and be willing to jump back in. Obviously, since we have not hit green on the weekly, this is an aggressive play where you can’t always catch a break, especially with all this dang volatility.”
Market makers did exactly what I thought they would and you would have done one of two things if you were playing JNUG aggressively. You would have either kept a hard stop or got back in on the reversal. I actually added shares before the bottom was hit from what I was reading. Gold wasn’t falling further and the dollar was reversing. Once market makers took out the stops they reversed and JNUG took off and I am still long even though we haven’t hit the green on the weekly. It’s hopefully showtime for JNUG but I will probably sell half shares to lock in profit on Monday in what will be a very volatile week with the Fed meeting.
UVXY on a higher high for scalps I will play all week long before Fed meeting. Most of the action/profit will be had M-W I think with Thursday as a slow trading day with “wait and see” traders preparing for the Fed. This is the week market makers work their magic and you should be aware of it as we have been through it before. .
INDEXES
I said Thursday that “All of the ETFs that were green on the weekly have turned red now giving us once again an indication that the market is turning higher.” It gave us a scare that could have had some hesitate getting in and my morning update said that we were down. But a higher high could have been played in the one’s I mentioned; TNA, SPXL, UPRO, TQQQ, UDOW, SSO and FAS. I still would have gone home flat over the weekend.
REPEAT: UVXY on a higher high for scalps I will play all week long before Fed meeting. Most of the action/profit will be had M-W I think with Thursday as a slow trading day with “wait and see” traders preparing for the Fed. This is the week market makers work their magic and you should be aware of it as we have been through it before.
CHINA/RUSSIA
YINN, RUSL and EDC all opened lower and were not a play except for the higher high rule.
INTEREST RATES
TBT didn’t trigger at 45.99 as it opened lower than 45.86. TLT would have been difficult to play with this up/down volatility but maybe this week you can trade it if it goes over 122.08.
ENERGY – Note; UWTI and UGAZ had reverse splits of 1:5
UWTI might have got the aggressive trader a scalp in the morning but then it reversed. The conservative trader never saw their mark hit. DWTI is peaking my interest over 119.55 (conservative) or a higher high if it opens lower (aggressive). We have no green signal on either except monthly for DWTI which is still where I lean medium term.
ERX you might have got a small scalp in the morning of 30 cents before it fell. ERY is in-between high and low and would only play the higher high of the two again.
UGAZ was a buy at the open as it was higher than 8.24 opening at 8.39. It moved as high as 8.59 so not much of a move, closing at 8.35. If you didn’t scalp you should have went home flat. No signals on DGAZ or UGAZ yet. Leaning towards UGAZ of the two, but I prefer better plays as we are in-between prices for both.
GOLD MINING RELATED ANALYSIS
Gold see above. Look to dollar as key for micro trading. I lean short term bullish but will take my profit quickly if I see the whipsaw I expect everywhere.
NOTE: Fed meeting Thursday and Friday 9/16 – 9/17 – Been looking forward to this for a long time as the Fed true colors will come through. My suggestion this week is to be lighter with share purchases and quicker with scalps only. There is ZERO plays at present except for monthly’s on some which don’t mean anything to me at present. Friday trading should be for experienced traders only. I wouldn’t guess what the Fed will do, but I will share what I “think” they will do. The Fed has to maintain credibility above all else and I think will raise rates 1/4 point. Simple as that.
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About Doug EberhardtDoug Eberhardt is a 28 year financial services veteran and precious metals broker selling gold and silver at 1% over wholesale cost. Doug has written a book to help investors understand how gold and silver fit into a diversified portfolio, how to buy gold and silver, and what metals to buy. The book; “Buy Gold and Silver Safely” is available by clicking here Contact phone number for Buy Gold and Silver Safely is 888-604-6534
Disclosure:
Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with capital you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Purchase/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve gains or losses similar to those discussed in this outlook. The past track record of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc. discussed in this outlook and the product materials are for illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations. All ideas and material presented are entirely those of the author.