Gold and Silver Current Thoughts 3-05-2015

From the Trading Desk

The USD continues its ascent higher and the euro has fallen to an eleven year low, dipping under 1.10 earlier in today’s trading session.  Positive US economic data yesterday encouraged euro shorts to add to positions.  ADP private nonfarm payrolls rose by 212,000 for February after an increase of 250,000 for January.  The 212,000 was slightly less than the median forecast but it was the thirteenth month of over 200,000 payroll gains.  The ISM non-manufacturing PMI also beat February forecasts of 56.5 and came in at 56.9.  Gold is trading lower for the fourth consecutive day after failing three days in a row around the $1,220 handle.  Near term support is at the double bottom of $1,190 and then below there at $1,174.  Silver is hanging above $16 so far but if gold breaks down, it feels like silver could follow in violent fashion.  The $16 figure has now been approached four times in the last several weeks and has held each time.  There will be plenty of stops around this key area.

I have said before and I’ll say it again, the Euro and the U.S. dollar will be at parity and because of this I have been bullish on the dollar since the EUR/USD was trading at around 1.36. That’s a big drop and also the main reason the dollar is now approaching 97 on the Index. If you throw in the weakness of the Yen the last few years, we have a little over 70% of the dollar in falling currencies. Is it any wonder gold has taken a hit? But of course the dollar is only part of the picture. If you don’t know what I mean by this, please read my article 2015 Predictions for Gold and Silver.

Gold and silver are still stuck in that range. We keep flirting with the $1,200 level and as I type, at 4pm PST, we are sitting at $1,199.30. Every move up in gold is sold. Every dip below this area has been bought. Something will give at some point.

Today we saw our stop on JDST getting hit as it fell below $10. When you are in a range, you have to protect profit and also take profit. JDST did rebound in the afternoon trading though and it could have been bought at a higher high at 10.29 and some may still be holding onto it now with JDST closing at 10.23. If so, I would still keep the same stop at $10. You are of course taking the risk that we will move lower in gold and you need to break that $1,190 level for JDST to move higher, and hopefully a nice move higher once it does. I still lean this way, but will trade what comes.

JNUG had a higher high that could have been played today but you would have probably been stopped out at break even. GDX, GDXJ and NUGT all had the same pattern.

UGAZ gave us some green love today and hit higher highs most of the day closing above 3 at 3.01. This gave us a green arrow up on the daily at 2.76, but you are still fighting the overall trend, so I view any move higher as a quick trade, not a swing trade. Can it turn into a swing trade? Sure it can. Just know your risk and trade it long as long at it stays green. But wait for the green weekly to make it a swing trade.

DWTI and UWTI didn’t make much of a move worth trading.

RUSS and RUSL we had the moves occur pre-market so couldn’t do much there. I do still like the trade on RUSS when it breaks 12.00 for a scalp though. Seems to be the pattern I mentioned yesterday. It’s 11.72 today with a high of 12.05. Maybe 12.06 would be worth a shot tomorrow or if it opens lower and reverses, the higher high.

There was a higher high on TNA today but then it dipped and you might have got shaken out. It recovered and ended up green closing at 85.95 No bear market in sight just yet.

Gold and Silver Stock Mining Package

The mining package that we will be offering has been waiting for a release at a time that I feel would coincide with my overall view of gold and silver prices reaching the lower targets I think they can fall too. Many so called experts last year in July thought the miners would take off and next thing you know they broke to lower lows. Some called this latest run up the final fall for the miners. It obviously hasn’t been and I know that’s frustrating for many who are long or have been long for some time. There is a reason why I have been patient with the release of the mining package. There is also a reason why I chose the stocks I did and I’m excited about their potential. The mining package release date will be announced soon. I sent out an email to all who have subscribed recently with an update. If you haven’t signed up, read the following and express your interest. If you are signed up, look forward to an announcement next week, March 9 – March 13.

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Gold and Silver Stock Mining Package