Gold and Silver Current Thoughts 3-03-2015

From the Trading Desk

Gold had been working its way higher for about a week but found steady offers for three consecutive days around the $1,220 area.  The failure to break through this level encouraged fresh shorts to enter the market, propelling it lower over the past two trading days.  Gold shorts were also encouraged to add to positions on the heels of fundamental news coming out of India.  India’s Finance Minister Arun Jaitley maintained the 10% import duty on gold in the 2015 – 2016 federal budget.  Considering the improvements in current account and fiscal balances, there was widespread speculation that the tariff would be cut.  The government had also allowed more agencies to import gold in 2014 so the climate seemed friendly for easing on the gold front.  Market participants were disappointed with the decision and gold has tested lower as a result.

The USD Index reached an eleven year high yesterday against a basket of currencies.  US equities screamed upwards with the Dow making all-time highs yet again and the Nasdaq hitting 5,000 for the first time in 15 years.  Gold remains range bound with support at the double bottom of $1,190 and resistance in place at $1,220 – $1,225.  Silver has been unable to maintain its footing above its 100 day moving average of $16.63 and is projecting lower to $16.

I mentioned yesterday JDST. I’m liking JDST now. It went from 8.70 to 9.30 yesterday and today had a 9.27 open, a fall to 8.91 and then a break out above to 9.57 close. You might have got stopped out at 9.13 in the AM, but would have bought again at 9.28, a break of the open price.  If gold would just cooperate we may get that lower low and kick JDST up. A move above 10 and we’re off to 15 maybe. Gold is trading at $1,205.10 as I type.

I would like to see gold trade below $1,190 for a reason to maybe add more to the JDST trade.

The stock market took a breather today and TNA fell 1.78% to 86.09. TZA gained .18 to close at 10.75. I still lean bullish and in the “buy the dip” mode.

The VIX rose a bit today and with it so did UVXY which ended up 4.08%. You could have bought UVXY at a break of 17.08 and rode it as high as 18.26. It closed at 17.36 and is weak again. You can’t marry this one just yet. I think lower lows are in the cards.

UWTI  could have been bought at 2.98 to a high of 3.10, but not much of a big trade. DWTI fell 3.33 to 109.11. Would love to see DWTI break below 100 again for a nice long. Not sure we’ll get it though. Simply look for the higher high tomorrow on DWTI. UWTI may also move higher but you need more shares and to sell them faster to make a decent profit if it does break to a higher high.

UGAZ and DGAZ were not tradeable today.  You would have more than likely been stopped out of DGAZ if you went long at 7.60 as it broke down after hitting a high of 7.80.

RUSL made most of its move before hours and a trade never opened up in it or RUSS.

 

Gold and Silver Stock Mining Package

The mining package that we will be offering has been waiting for a release at a time that I feel would coincide with my overall view of gold and silver prices reaching the lower targets I think they can fall too. Many so called experts last year in July thought the miners would take off and next thing you know they broke to lower lows. Some called this latest run up the final fall for the miners. It obviously hasn’t been and I know that’s frustrating for many who are long or have been long for some time. There is a reason why I have been patient with the release of the mining package. There is also a reason why I chose the stocks I did and I’m excited about their potential. The mining package release date will be announced soon. I sent out an email to all who have subscribed on Friday with an update. If you haven’t signed up, read the following and express your interest.

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