3
Nov

Gold and Silver Current Thoughts 11-03-2015

From the Trading Desk

The hangover from last week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting continues to afflict the precious metals.  Gold has traded lower for four consecutive sessions now and is set to make its lowest close in over a month today.  Recent equity and USD strength has contributed to traders and investors exiting from long precious metals positions.  Gold is now well under all major moving averages and next major support is coming in at the psychological figure of $1,100.  According to US Mint data, gold coin sales in October totaled 44,500 ounces, down 50% year on year for the same period.  Silver coin sales over the last month totaled 3.8 million ounces, a drop of 35% year on year.  Keep in mind that the silver figures don’t reveal the full story as the US Mint has been on allocation since June of this year.  This means that authorized purchasers have been restricted each week to a finite number of coins even though market demand has clearly outstripped supply.  While silver coin demand has remained robust over the past few months, silver exchange traded holdings are at their lowest level since July of 2013.

Dollar up, gold and silver down. It is what I have been expecting and today we saw gold and silver take it on the chin with gold down to $1,113.10 and presently $1,115 and silver hanging in there down 16 cents to $15.24.

The dollar is up 34 cents to 97.25.

Dollar Index 11-3

 

Another taste of my ETF Research Trading Analysis

We entered TQQQ and are up 1.63

We entered UDOW and are up 1.25

Got 30 cents to 80 cents from SVXY.

Got 50 cents (ore more if aggressive) from GASL.

UGAZ down 8 cents on but it hasn’t triggered on the weekly. Still may run but will keep a stop.

One losing trade on DWTI.

http://seekingalpha.com/account/research/login_and_subscribe?slug=doug-eberhardt

Doug Eberhardt, Contributor

Author’s reply »
Markets are lower this morning with futures down on all 3 indexes. Our buys for this morning, TQQQ and UDOW are only buys when they tick past yesterday’s close.RUSL doing well still and was my favorite yesterday. If still holding, move stops up.UVXY and UGAZ, my two “very, very risky” plays from yesterday are both up. I plan on selling the bounce in UGAZ and will wait and see on UVXY as I would like to get a little more out of it.Gold is down again and JDST is still the longer term play for those that are swinging it.Still too early to see any action on anything else.
03 Nov 2015, 08:22 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
3.50, where UGAZ is now is resistance. I am holding out for it to get past that resistance and maybe get a technical bounce today. I’ll probably sell too early but I like taking profit which is a theme I will always press here trading leveraged ETFs.
03 Nov 2015, 08:31 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
The one’s I’ll watch for higher highs today are:UWTI
GASL (low volume and more risky play – scalp only)
UGAZ – falling back from earlier highs
JDST
DUST
DSLV
UVXY – falling back a little from earlier highs
YANG
RUSL – slow moverMarkets have recovered a little but still in negative territory for the open. Europe also all negative.
03 Nov 2015, 08:58 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
For the other new trades at the open, JDST, DUST, and DSLV (lower volume and wider spreads) are buys at the open. Typically you may get a quick bounce up and if you buy it, expect a retraction to “fill the gap” and try and shake out weak hands.Once an ETF turns green on the weekly we are assured (most of the time) that a trend has developed and we then look for the trend to move to a monthly green. We sell either when you are happy with profit or when the weekly turns red. The longer the monthly is green the longer it takes to turn a weekly red so you will give up some potential profit if you simply wait. Just know when you are up nicely it’s ok to lock in profit. You can always buy the weekly/monthly green again on a dip and have a little more confidence versus any ETF that is not green on the weekly/monthly.When you are up nicely, always think of what that money represents in real terms and what you can do with it; charity, pay off kids college tuition bills, more capital for trading more ETFs at once, whatever floats your boat.
03 Nov 2015, 09:15 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
Ford reported lower sales and GM reports in 10 minutes. Remember when there was a time Wall Street said “As GM goes, so goes the nation?” GM needed a bailout and so did the nation.
03 Nov 2015, 09:17 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
Market futures heading a bit lower again but not past the earlier lows. If we are going to fall look for the lower lows to trade TZA, SDOW, SQQQ. Even though TZA turned red on the report for today, it doesn’t mean you can’t look at the market and still trade it long.It’s like trading JNUG yesterday. I am the biggest bear on gold I know, and I sell it for a living, lol, but I’ll trade JNUG in a heartbeat for profit. With all these ETFs, don’t let the news and outside forces from a macro level influence the micro picture. Because these ETFs are 3x leveraged, they will move quickly in one or two days, hopefully more in our direction.I wrote this to someone earlier;No matter what, keep a stop.You can always get back in.We as traders have to know the only way we lose is if the market is right and we are wrong. Write that out 100 times.If we keep a stop and take profit from our winners, we can’t lose.If we don’t keep a stop, we can lose.I can have 4 or 5 stops hit for small losses and one winner to make up for those small losses.But how many times are we on the wrong side? Not many.
03 Nov 2015, 09:25 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
UGAZ hit that 3.50 resistance and is now down. Keep an eye on DGAZ for a higher high now after the open. It can still fly. I will try and take any profit I can from UGAZ now. I wanted to sell on the gap up but got caught doing other things this morning. My bad. I even said we are hitting resistance at 3.50 but I got greedy and wanted to see if it would break over. Then I forgot about it as I was working on other things. Just know we are human as traders and we make mistakes. I call myself “dumb” all the time! I know better and I still make mistakes.
03 Nov 2015, 09:29 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
UWTI, RUSL, DUST, JDST, GASL, UVXY, YANG are the one’s to watch for higher highs.
03 Nov 2015, 09:30 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
I sold my UVXY at 26.09, and UGAZ am still about flat.
03 Nov 2015, 09:32 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
UWTI over 10.98 is a buy
DWTI (on a reversal) over 91.75
03 Nov 2015, 09:35 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
If not in JDST it is a buy over 30.67
DUST is a buy over 16.65
03 Nov 2015, 09:37 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
GASL took off without a pullback. Wait for first pullback and a higher high to play for scalp.
03 Nov 2015, 09:37 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
For our long market trades from the report:UDOW about to go green and is a buy then.
TQQQ not there yet.
03 Nov 2015, 09:40 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
UGAZ went green.
03 Nov 2015, 09:40 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
Market is mixed right now and seems to be trying to move higher. UDOW up 11 cents now and TQQ not playing along.
03 Nov 2015, 09:42 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
Sold my UGAZ for a little profit on that bump up. sold 3.40.
03 Nov 2015, 09:45 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
Market pulling back here. UDOW fell to red and back to green again though. Trying. I watch TNA as one of my indicators and it is red.
03 Nov 2015, 09:48 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
JDST right at the high of the day and broke through. Gold $1,123 down $12. Looking good.
DUST broke high of day too.
If you are swing trading JDST or DUST and are up nicely, you can keep a stop at low of day. Reversals come and I like taking profit.
If you are daytrading it, you need gold to continue south, so keep an eye on it for a bounce and locking in profit.
Been a nice move but pullbacks ALWAYS come.
03 Nov 2015, 09:50 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
UGAZ took off. If over 3.50, I would be a buyer.
03 Nov 2015, 09:53 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
UVXY a buy over 26.25
03 Nov 2015, 09:54 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
UWTI broke higher by a penny 10.99 and would have been hard pressed to catch it. DWTI on a reversal, which we always seem to see is still a buy at 91.75. Eyeing both.
03 Nov 2015, 09:55 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
GASL pullback is occurring. Buy at 23.32 for a scalp. 50 cents should be goal. Can go $1 but it is unpredictable so I scalp smaller amounts.
03 Nov 2015, 09:56 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
UGAZ right there.
03 Nov 2015, 09:56 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
JDST and DUST pullback
UGAZ broke past 3.50 resistance and should continue higher. I let some profit go there.
03 Nov 2015, 10:03 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
Man oh man GASL just loves to tease traders. It’s down 1.20 from it’s high now. Still on the watch for that high though. Because it trades at such a low volume, market makers love to pull it back and trap new longs. Seen it a million times.
03 Nov 2015, 10:08 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
RUSL if you are not already in it from yesterday is a buy over 17.94. Slow and steady mover. That 17.94 is resistance but next stop 19.29 if it can get past it. Risk vs. reward there.
03 Nov 2015, 10:10 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
DWTI broke higher over that 91.75 mark and you should be in it for 2 points possibly more. I would think. It can have a reversal but use 90.02 as your stop.
03 Nov 2015, 10:11 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
Gold movement lower at a stand still. Nothing goes straight down. Dollar higher. Everything just like we wanted.
03 Nov 2015, 10:17 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
GASL had that fall and trying to move back up. 22.31 ask. For very risky trade you can try to ride it up 50 cents here. Might try at the high one last time. By the time I finished typing this the ask is already 22.48.
03 Nov 2015, 10:18 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
BRZU I said in the report above to watch for the higher high to trade as it was up 6% yesterday. It keeps breaking higher and never really had a pullback to jump in on.
03 Nov 2015, 10:20 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
TQQQ trying to go green for us and a buy. It just did and the trade is on.
UDOW is at 44 cents in the green now and so far a good trade.
03 Nov 2015, 10:22 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
DWTI faltered and needs a stick save. Thought we might get a good bounce from it. Hasn’t taken out stop but close.
03 Nov 2015, 10:24 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
JNUG a buy at 38.31
NUGT a buy at 34.03deja vu of yesterdays whipsaw.
03 Nov 2015, 10:25 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
Stopped out of DWTI on that move. Just know that bottom fishing is the most difficult trade to profit from. Buying the green, positive are much preferred. On a higher high for bottom fishing I still like the risk vs. reward. You won’t win them all.
03 Nov 2015, 10:30 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
GASL very risky trade is playing out well. Close to the high of 23.31 and a buy for a scalp for the more conservative. Keep in mind, market makers sometimes like to break the highs and pull it back to trap more longs. This is the risk we have to accept in playing the higher highs and we gladly accept it. But with GASL, being a lower volume stock, the pain can be quick if caught in that trap so be more careful.
03 Nov 2015, 10:32 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
TQQQ up 16 cents.
UDOW now up 65 cents.
03 Nov 2015, 10:33 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
JNUG and NUGT getting closer. If you go long I would scalp only. Gold is still weak so these are more risky plays if they trigger (see DWTI above).
03 Nov 2015, 10:36 AM Reply0Like
Author’s reply »
DOW is up and S&P flat with NASDAQ in the red a little. UDOW doing ok but TQQQ struggling a bit.
03 Nov 2015, 10:48 AM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
I will say this about DWTI. We want it in the 70’s! If it can get there I think it will set us up for an awesome swing trade where your hardest decision will be when to take profit.
03 Nov 2015, 10:50 AM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
UGAZ and GASL still trying.
03 Nov 2015, 10:50 AM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
TQQQ and UDOW looking better.These green weekly signals work more times than not.That’s all you need to make money. :-)Maybe I jinxed TQQQ. It’s just not wanting to join the party.
03 Nov 2015, 10:53 AM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
GASL petered and hopefully you got a scalp out of that last move up to 23 from 22.40’s. Can still try again.
03 Nov 2015, 10:57 AM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
JDST and DUST slowly moving up again.
03 Nov 2015, 10:58 AM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
TNA and TZA negative. Shows you even the market is uncertain what to do.
03 Nov 2015, 10:59 AM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
UWTI and RUSL at the highs of the day.
03 Nov 2015, 11:06 AM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
GASL trying once again and this time I think it can break higher. 23.04 ask right now. 23.32 is the buy. 50 cents the goal. Possibly more but know your own greed.
03 Nov 2015, 11:12 AM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
Looks like ERX got oil to confirm its higher move up. Been a good performer today.
03 Nov 2015, 11:20 AM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
The JNUG a buy at 38.31
NUGT a buy at 34.03all triggered. scalps only please.Gold bounced a bit but the trend is not with gold or the miners. Bounces always come in these and we scalp only.
03 Nov 2015, 11:21 AM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
I would look at taking profits of 75 cents on NUGT and 50 cents on JNUG here. Gold isn’t all of a sudden going to reverse higher I don’t think.
03 Nov 2015, 11:30 AM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
TQQQ was a laggard but finally got going, up 29 cents now. UDOW up 70 cents.
03 Nov 2015, 11:32 AM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
For the buy the dippers I should also say that JDST and DUST are in a good risk vs. reward for buying the dip at 29.77 and 16.03.
03 Nov 2015, 11:34 AM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
I would expect SVXY as a laggard to start moving higher here. It’s 63.52 now on the ask.
03 Nov 2015, 11:35 AM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
UGAZ trade faltered It did this in pre-market going from 3.50 to 3.32 after the open. That 3.50 area is still resistance. 3.32 is the low of the day. We are mid-range at 3.43 ask now.
03 Nov 2015, 11:37 AM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
BRZU still moving higher. I should have called a break of yesterday’s high as a buy. That’s always an easy trade but not sure I put it in the Trading Rules. Lots of rules that make us better traders and get us more profit. Keep reading them over please.
03 Nov 2015, 11:38 AM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
UDOW up 99 cents
TQQQ up 72 cents
03 Nov 2015, 11:41 AM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
We have been here before with YINN. It is about to go green and worth a scalp of 25 cents or so if it does.
03 Nov 2015, 11:49 AM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
Gold goes below 1120.30 and JDST/DUST should break out. The buy the dip for new traders is also higher. They just need gold to cooperate with a lower low and it is close. More mining stocks are breaking down now.
03 Nov 2015, 11:54 AM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
UDOW and TQQQ up 1.11 and 1.07 respectively. Some would call that a good move and take profit and be done with them. Being that they are green on the weekly, they have the propensity to move higher.
03 Nov 2015, 12:01 PM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
TBT turned green on the weekly and is good to go higher as it has been. It seems the market is thinking, despite the data being lousy, that the Fed will raise rates come December. A token raise will give them some street cred (to make it seem like they are still in control). I have to think this seems like a reality. Market is shrugging off anything and everything and my whole purpose of taking this time now to finish my next book “Illusions of Wealth” is to time the high of the market and low in gold. I would prefer the book out BEFORE each of these occur.
03 Nov 2015, 12:15 PM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
It’s interesting that UVXY is staying so strong. It’s as if someone doesn’t believe this market move higher. I notice it comes at a time when UDOW and TQQQ are pulling back.
03 Nov 2015, 12:17 PM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
Meanwhile, gold broke to a lower low down to 1117.10. JDST and DUST slowly moving towards their high of the days. I would have hoped they broke their highs of the day at the same time but that’s not the case.
03 Nov 2015, 12:18 PM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
It’s lunchtime now so light trading and whipsaw moves.
03 Nov 2015, 12:19 PM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
UVXY breaks to new high and this seems to be in conjunction with the market pulling back as is UDOW and TQQQ. It really doesn’t mean much to me. I know Larry Edelson is bearish on the stock market and bullish on UVXY, and he is in the deflationary camp like I am, but I don’t discount price action and what the market sees is coming in December. A rate hike is to assume that the economy is strong and it would be dollar and market bullish in my book, and gold negative. This I think is what the market is seeing and shaking off all the negative data that I write about and see, but not sure if Larry can separate the bad data from the higher prices.One thing I learned from 92 year old Dow Theory Letters writer Richard Russell is that you don’t ignore price action. The markets are up 6 weeks straight after the China put. It has taken awhile for the market to get going, but I wouldn’t step in front of it now.I don’t trust UVXY here. I would buy SVXY at 66.03 here. But that’s just me.
03 Nov 2015, 12:47 PM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
GASL pulled a lunchtime higher high on us moving past 23.31. As I said, go for 50 cents and aggressive investors more. It’s 23.58 on the bid now. Goal is 23.82 +. I would keep a stop at 23.
03 Nov 2015, 12:55 PM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
UWTI broke to another higher high. DWTI getting closer to the 70’s. People were on CNBC talking about oil to the 70’s now. Hogwash.
03 Nov 2015, 12:56 PM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
You got your 50 cents in GASL. I’d be done with it now.
03 Nov 2015, 01:10 PM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
Gold down 18.70 now.Miners trying to go higher but they are clearly lagging.
03 Nov 2015, 01:17 PM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
SVXY is up to 63.62, 59 cents form where I last called it and 12 cents from when I first mentioned it. It’s still down 40 cents for the day but I still like it to go green if we get a push higher in the market.
03 Nov 2015, 01:31 PM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
UDOW + 1.11
TQQQ + 1.44
03 Nov 2015, 01:32 PM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
UWTI keeps going higher and DWTI 3 way from the 70’s.
03 Nov 2015, 01:32 PM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
YINN did go and stay green and if you played it, you are up 15 cents at present.
03 Nov 2015, 01:33 PM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
Aggressive traders on GASL are rewarded with a move to 24. Move stops up if still in it.
03 Nov 2015, 01:38 PM Delete CommentReply0Like
Author’s reply »
SVXY is green now. Up 13 cents. Nice little turnaround as a laggard and I stuck with it even though it originally moved lower.
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About Doug Eberhardt

Doug Eberhardt is a 28 year financial services veteran and precious metals broker selling gold and silver at 1% over wholesale cost. Doug has written a book to help investors understand how gold and silver fit into a diversified portfolio, how to buy gold and silver, and what metals to buy. The book; “Buy Gold and Silver Safely” is available by clicking here Contact phone number for Buy Gold and Silver Safely is 888-604-6534

Disclosure:

Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with capital you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Purchase/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve gains or losses similar to those discussed in this outlook. The past track record of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc. discussed in this outlook and the product materials are for illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations. All ideas and material presented are entirely those of the author.