18
Dec

Current Thoughts 12/18/16

The dollar is still key for metals. Can still go either way but we saw China make some noise and can see it can bounce quickly too. Gold is up 2.90 in Chinese trading with the dollar trading .27 lower. Good start but we’ve been in this pattern before where the dollar finds the will to rebound and move higher.

I don’t see any difference to Trump than I did to Reagan, Bush 1 and 2, Clinton and Obama. They all increased or will increase the national debthttp://www.cnn.com/2016/11/17/politics/donald-trump-infrastructure-plan-congress/

 The cutting of taxes is mostly to Corporations, but this is defeated before it even occurs with a strong dollar that will hurt earnings.
Not sure if you read my book yet, but we have to experience a deflationary episode (fueled by the Chinese contraction and European implosion we are in the midst of, as well as Japan) before any inflation really takes hold. We should have a bounce up in gold soon, followed by another take down later in 2017, then we’ll see during the 1st year of Trump as President the beginning of real inflation.
I do see at present the dollar as an issues. My nightly reports show the side of that trade we are on. I was a little pre-mature, but we are playing JDST well at the same time and the other ETF calls are doing great. Don’t get caught up in one trade when there is easy money being made in others where we take profit on some good moves.
Trumps comments about China on Twitter I predicted and he couldn’t even get that right using the word “presedented” instead of unprecedented. He’s a loose cannon and unproven. Heck, the electors meet tomorrow too and a civil war may break out if Electors flip on him. haha
Anyway, from a micro perspective we will hedge with JDST calls, but the other calls don’t ignore. China is the reason why I think the dollar has possibly topped. They won’t sit idly by watching their loans become more expensive. They have already dumped treasuries and are no longer the leading holder of them (Japan is) and stirring up a little trouble in the South China Seas where you saw gold jump last week. We’ll see how it plays out.
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About Doug Eberhardt

Doug Eberhardt is a 28 year financial services veteran and precious metals broker selling gold and silver at 1% over wholesale cost. Doug has written a book to help investors understand how gold and silver fit into a diversified portfolio, how to buy gold and silver, and what metals to buy. The book; “Buy Gold and Silver Safely” is available by clicking here Contact phone number for Buy Gold and Silver Safely is 888-604-6534

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