The following is an excerpt from my forthcoming book, “Illusions of Wealth” with an update on my thoughts about gold and silver to follow.
The Awful Truth about Mutual Fund Managers and Hedge Fund Managers Performance
Why are you invested in actively managed mutual funds? Many of you who invest in Mutual Funds were probably told to buy them because some financial advisor recommended you do so. The harsh reality is the one’s who own 90% of the $17 Trillion held in mutual funds didn’t beat the market index. The same is true for the rest of the world who have $35 Trillion held in mutual funds.
Here is the harsh reality when it comes to this professional manager performance.
In 2011, 79% of active fund managers didn’t beat the S&P 500 stock index.
In 2012, 66% of active fund managers didn’t beat the S&P 500 stock index.
In 2013 active fund managers came close to beating the S&P 500 index but still did not do so. In fact, according to McGraw Hill Financial Director, Aye M. Soe, CFA, as of mid-2013;
59.58% of large-cap funds, 68.88% of mid-cap funds and 64.27% of small-cap funds underperformed their respective benchmark indices. The performance figures are equally unfavorable for active funds when viewed over the three- and five- year horizons. Performance across all domestic equity categories lagged behind the benchmarks over the three- and five- year horizons.
When you add the fees that Mutual Fund managers make it takes even more away from your Mutual Fund overall return. Mutual funds have raised their fees from an average of 0.62 % of assets to 1.11% of assets, an increase of 84%.
According to Yan Zilbering, an investment analyst with the Vanguard Investment Strategy Group, over time these fees add up.
If you invested $50,000 in a fund with the 2012 average Vanguard expense ratio of 0.19%, in 30 years you could have $65,793 more than someone who invested in a fund with the industry’s average expense ratio of 1.11%.
The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) has a good calculator you can use to see what fees your mutual fund is charging you. It can be found by clicking here.
Mutual fund sales are big business and financial advisors make good commission from selling these actively managed funds to you. But are they really in your best interest in doing so? I don’t think so and the data above proves it. So what did you pay to get into your current mutual fund? To answer this you need to know what type of shares you bought “A,” front load; “B” back load; “C” annual fees (sometimes called no-load funds); and “H” which is a hybrid of “A” and “B” that includes both a smaller front load and back load.
On a $10,000 investment in “A” shares, a 5% front load fee would be $500. This means you start your investment with $9,500 but there are no back end fees upon liquidation. A “B” shares purchase means that when you liquidate your investment you are charged a declining fee that typically starts at 5% and disappears after 5 to 7 years depending on the fund.
No load funds typically charge an annual fee or what is called a 12b-1 that amounts to 0.25% of the fund’s average annual net assets. It is important to note that the “B” back end load shares mentioned above most likely also has a 12b-1 fee associated with it. Also, “H” shares typically also have a higher 12b-1 fee.
Below you will find a comparison of 3 large cap blend funds with A shares represented by Rydex Funds (RYTTX), B shares represented by Prudential (PTMBX) and a no-load fund represented by Vanguard (VFIAX). The purpose of this analysis is not to say one fund outperforms the other based on how the manager invests, but to show you how fees and commission charged can affect your overall total return. Each fund has an initial investment of $20,000, the same 10 year time frame and each has an assumed annual return of 7%.
All things being equal, you can see how lower fees can make a huge difference in your overall return and you should be aware of what your advisor is selling you. In my book “Illusions of Wealth,” I have 53 questions to ask your financial advisor BEFORE signing on the dotted line. These questions will help you keep more of what you earned, and also let you know more about the capabilities of the one managing your wealth.
Lastly, some mutual funds are wrapped inside variable annuities and another layer of fees called a mortality and expense risk charge in the range of 1.25% per year of your account value or $125 on a $10,000 investment. This fee takes care of insurance costs because the annuity is actually an insurance product, and also the commission paid to the broker who sold it to you since most of these variable annuities are no-load. Another word of caution with variable annuities is the liquidation penalty that can run quite high, typically 5% to 10%, if you need your money within the first 5 to 10 years. Also, the penalties for withdrawing your money before age 59 1/2 are 10%, but these annuities are tax-deferred. Unlike investing in mutual funds however, your growth is not taxed as a capital gain, but rather as ordinary income. Variable annuities make zero sense inside one’s IRA or 410k, unless of course you know you’re going to live to 90 or 100 and can take advantage of life time income options that beat the mortality tables that actuaries draw up.
With all these fees, commission, loads and penalties, how does an investor get ahead? Perhaps hedge funds are the answer.
For Hedge Fund Investors, It’s Worse than Mutual Funds
No, hedge funds are not the answer. There are over 10,000 hedge funds holding $2.4 trillion in assets but Hedge Funds only rose 7.4% on average in 2013 making it the 5th straight year that Hedge Fund managers have not beat the S&P 500. The simple little S&P 500 Index has outperformed hedge funds for 10 straight years except for 2008 when both the S&P 500 Index lost big but hedge fund managers edged mutual fund managers in overall performance.
The best Hedge Fund manager in 2013 was David Tepper of Appalossa Management whose fund was up approximately 38% or just 9% more than the S&P 500 Index. For this performance Tepper was paid $3 billion dollars.
Just imagine what the hedge fund managers who are not beating the Index are getting paid! According to a recent Citibank study, they estimated that hedge fund managers need at least $300 million Assets Under Management (AUM) to break even. This would mean that of the $300 million total needed for expenses, an investment manager would receive about 20% of $60 million or $18 million even before the fund has invested a dime. The larger the hedge fund, the less the manager makes. But of course that’s on a much larger piece of the pie like in Tepper’s case above as he manages approximately $18 billion of assets to have earned his $3 billion in 2013.
The wealthy in America may impress their friends by saying “I invest in Hedge Funds,” but clearly most that do so are worse off than anyone else. I think you could have thrown darts at a Wall Street Journal listing of stocks and done better than the 7.4% average in 2013, and saved the fees paid to your funds managers.
A good theory might be that mutual fund managers did better in 2013 than in past years because pre-2013 mutual fund managers took their horrid record of performance (not beating the indexes) to go manage hedge funds to get the higher pay out. But still the bottom line is, none of these guys are good at beating the index.
This leads us to the question; why are you paying anyone to manage your money when it is clear that you have a higher probability of success by simply buying an Index fund with lower fees that will put more money in your retirement account instead of your brokers retirement account? Of course it’s not as simple as that. As will be explained further in my book, proper Asset Allocation is what’s needed along with some built in protection from unknown forces that can bring a repeat of a financial crisis that took everyone by surprise in 2008. And when I say everyone, I mean most every single financial advisor and economist out there. Even those who got it right have since not called the markets well, especially when predicting what gold will do next. For now, you are informed as to how well “the professionals” are doing with your hard earned money. It truly has been awful.
Gold and Silver Market Update
In December I called for an up January in precious metals. Here’s what I had to say in a nutshell.
Gold and silver aren’t going to shoot up dramatically in the next 30 days. For now, I see an up month in gold for January. The one’s doing the selling for tax reasons today will reestablish their positions in the metals in January to take advantage of the coming break to higher highs. But I do expect that one more smack down. Gold and silver aren’t going to shoot up dramatically in the next 30 days.
We hit a low in gold of $1,180 Dec. 31st and we’re now sitting at almost $1,260. This $80 increase is approximately 6.78% which for one month isn’t a bad return. Silver reached a low of $18.83 on Dec. 31st and is now sitting at $19.92, a 5.79% increase.
But those who invest in physical gold and silver don’t invest for one month returns. They buy gold as insurance against a multitude of banking, debt, government, Federal Reserve and economic conditions that are ripe for gold to fly. The main question on everyone’s mind though is when? When am I going to start seeing my gold and silver investments rise?
We should start to see gold and silver begin their meteoric 3rd phase rise beginning sometime this year. Before that occurs I have been calling for one more test of the lows and will wait patiently for it. If you call me and ask what I think, I tell you, despite the fact that most other gold dealers will say you have to buy because of a “falling dollar,” “hyperinflation” or some other nonsense. I am dollar bullish which is something that most who sell gold don’t understand. I don’t see hyperinflation in a country that has the economic power that the U.S. does. I do see a government trying to screw it all up, despite all you hear that the economy is recovering. In fact, I do see a higher stock market for now and another test of the highs in the coming months.
But I also see things that can change my mind quickly. Europe has their issues and they will start to come to fruition towards the end of the year. We’ve already seen the negativity of what emerging markets are bringing, causing the DOW to fall over 1,000 points off its high, currently sitting at 15,440. Treasuries have been strong and with interest rates low this has allowed the Fed to taper another $10 billion a month. I watch the 3% level as my line in the sand as to Fed tapering. Anything above that and we’re back to QE. I also at some point see the dollar and gold moving higher together, but this may not happen till later in the year when Europe runs into more problems.
Gold and silver will begin to be buoyed by the world chasing the monetary metals. We have seen a taste of it in January and we’ll see more of it later this year. But watch the Market Makers try and scare you out one more time. We could go higher from here for a bit to trap more of the bulls who say the bottom is in. But I know I’m one of the few who think we have one more test of the lows. I hope we get it as I’ll be ready to write my “all in” article and become the biggest bull around! There are literally trillions of reasons to be bullish and while we may not time the bottom perfectly, most of my clients who are dollar cost averaging into a position will be very happy with their allocations into precious metals in the years to come.
Doug Eberhardt is a 28 year financial services veteran and precious metals broker selling gold and silver at 1% over wholesale cost. Doug has written a book to help investors understand how gold and silver fit into a diversified portfolio, how to buy gold and silver, and what metals to buy. The book; “Buy Gold and Silver Safely” is available by clicking here Contact phone number for Buy Gold and Silver Safely is 888-604-6534
Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with capital you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Purchase/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve gains or losses similar to those discussed in this outlook. The past track record of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc. discussed in this outlook and the product materials are for illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations. All ideas and material presented are entirely those of the author.