You’ll notice that gold and silver are a bit more volatile of late. This is what happens when you have buyers and sellers in conflict with each other. It should also precede the next move in the metals. The question remains, will that move be a bit higher or are we topping? Let’s look at each scenario and see what the data tells us.
Is gold going to move higher or lower from here? We have to look at the dollar to get a better grasp on answering this question. As you can see in the following chart, the dollar is still in a bull mode since September 2011. It has not broken down. To break down it has to fall below 88. Please note we are above 94.
There is an exception to the “all out of gold” scenario and that is what I wrote about and that is if we have an expedited credit contraction where money will flow to treasuries, Federal Reserve Notes and gold all at once. I first made reference to this in Chapter 4 of my book Buy Gold and Silver Safely which I wrote in 2010 and update that section with the release of my next book Illusions of Wealth due out any week now. I also wrote about it November 27th in this article; Deflation Will Drive the Price of Gold Lower. Please note the inverse pyramids in that article. I have tweaked them a little bit for the Illusions of Wealth book.
Milton Berg, founder and CEO of MB Advisors was interviewed by Bloomberg recently and during the interview brought up many of the issues I am addressing in the Illusions of Wealth book. I recommend listening to this interview. Yes, it may go over the head of many investors, especially those who are perennially bullish like CNBC journalists, and pay close attention to what he says is the “most likely scenario” moving forward; deflation.
To make the case for gold to move higher from here you have to also make the case for the dollar to fall from here. If you understand what’s going on in Greece, Italy, Portugal (Euro related), Japan (Yen) and China (world), it is very difficult to come to that conclusion as the contraction Berg speaks of and I write about is on the horizon. If we can make that case of a higher dollar then there is still pressure on gold moving forward. This pressure will also be on oil and most all other commodities.
The only alternative to this scenario is the helicopter drop but the Fed is known to be reactive, not proactive. Just look at the last move they made with interest rates, raising them in December. I said back then it would be a one and done while 60 percent of Wall St. saw another hike coming in March, 21% saw 3 rate hikes and 33% saw 4 rate hikes for 2016. We have had zero and it’s mid-May. Some are talking a hike in November.
Related posts
About Doug EberhardtDoug Eberhardt is a 28 year financial services veteran and precious metals broker selling gold and silver at 1% over wholesale cost. Doug has written a book to help investors understand how gold and silver fit into a diversified portfolio, how to buy gold and silver, and what metals to buy. The book; “Buy Gold and Silver Safely” is available by clicking here Contact phone number for Buy Gold and Silver Safely is 888-604-6534
Disclosure:
Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with capital you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Purchase/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve gains or losses similar to those discussed in this outlook. The past track record of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc. discussed in this outlook and the product materials are for illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations. All ideas and material presented are entirely those of the author.