The last DSI report on 4/26 close had the dollar index at a high of 95 and other currencies single digits. All the other currencies are now rising with only the Swiss franc lagging. But the DXY still is at 103 range but DSI has fallen a hair.
I suggested dollar cost averaging into the S&P and Nasdaq and both have gone higher. Pre-Fed now I went flat today after a nice run up but will look to buy any dip post Fed.
My data on gold miners was extremely oversold and I suggested to dollar cost average in there as well, even with a bit of leverage. I went flat there today even though the data has recovered some and trying to get going. I just want to see what Fed day brings and lock in profit and make moves long market or miners after the Fed based on what price action does.
Longer term however, miners are still to be accumulated. Don’t really care if the physical price of gold or silver has another leg down. I did say to use $1,895 as a tight stop on gold and we were down to $1,849.70 this morning and presently $1,871.90 now. Silver at 22.60. Silver DSI has taken a bigger hit than gold, down to 30.
Bitcoin has moved down to 25 RSI but seems to be consolidating around the 38 mark. Could move up with the market. I would only do a short term trade long there with stop at 38,000. 38,144 now. If we fell below 38,000 I would buy back again at 38,250. I went long a little DOT yesterday and down a little, expecting a little bounce. (EDIT stopped out 14.50 on DOT – Been staying away overall on cryptos. Bitcoin broke 38,000 rather quickly after I wrote this note and looking pretty darn weak. Maybe by end of year cryptos will be back in fashion, but I will wait for single digit DSI before going long for now).
T-Bond and T-Notes should still be on a buy despite the pullback from recent highs.
Crude light still moving higher.
Same with Natural Gas but I will assume tonight’s DSI data will have it hitting the 90s where you take some off the table and/or use a trailing stop.
Cotton overbought.
Note that Soybean Oil hit the 90s and retreated. OJ hit 88 and might have one more leg up before falling.
Lean hogs a dollar cost average buy.
Lot of good traders I follow are about as negative on real estate as I have ever seen. I can’t emphasize that enough on the sell side.
With Fed interest rate tomorrow it should be a .50 hike. Market most likely will sell off initially but I will scoop that up for a nice run. Metals I would just go long over 1895 if not in. Plenty of profit ahead. But I want to see what Fed does. No chance at .75 hike. But they will talk the talk of higher rates which might spook the market. In the end, after a market bounce, the bigger market selloff comes and the Fed will be forced to reverse course once they realize they suck.
