All Data color coded green for positive stories and red for negative stories. The information below was originally created Mar. 17, 2015.
11/4 Private companies add 182K jobs vs.180,000 est: ADP
11/4 Higher interest rates push mortgage applications down 0.8%
10/30 U.S. Consumer Spending Rose Less Than Forecast in September
10/30 Personal income rose 0.1% in Sept vs 0.2% increase expected
10/29 US jobless claims rise
10/29 US Q3 gross domestic product up 1.5% vs 1.6% growth expected
10/29 Pending home sales down 2.3% in September
10/27 Consumer confidence retreats in October
10/27 Business spending gauge falls; goods orders weak
10/27 Home prices rise 5.1% in Aug:S&P/Case-Shiller
10/26 US new home sales drop to near one-year low
10/16 Job openings pull back from July’s record high
10/16 Consumer sentiment beats expectations in October
10/15 Foreclosure crisis lingers: Repossessions spike 66%
10/14 US producer prices post biggest decline in 8 months
10/14 Retail sales barely rise, dented lower gas receipts
10/14 Mortgage volume gives back big gains, down 28%
10/9 US import prices inch lower in September
10/7 Mortgage applications surge 25% on regulation worry
10/6 US trade deficit widens as exports sag
10/2 Weak jobs signals Fed on hold until 2016
9/29 Consumer confidence up moderately in September
9/28 Consumer spending rises in Aug; inflation firms
9/28 Pending home sales fell 1.4% in August
9/25 US Q2 GDP growth revised up on spending, building
9/24 Jobless claims rose slightly
9/24 US new home sales soar, top estimates (shades of 2006?)
9/24 Orders for US durable goods fall 2% in August
9/23 Euro zone business activity contracts in September
9/22 Flash China Caixin PMI falls to 47 in September, a 6-1/2-year low
9/17 US weekly jobless claims total 264,000 vs 275,000 estimate
9/17 Philly Fed factory activity contracts unexpectedly in September
9/17 US housing starts take a breather
9/16 US consumer prices post first decline in 7 months
9/16 Mortgage applications plunge 7% ahead of Fed decision
9/16 OECD cuts global growth forecast for 2015
9/15 Business inventories edge up 0.1% in July, in line with expectations
9/15 US industrial production down 0.4% in Aug vs 0.2% drop expected
9/15 New York State factory activity declines for second month
9/15 US retail sales up 0.2% in Aug vs 0.3% increase expected
9/15 Hayman Capital’s Bass: China’s real problem is its banking sector
9/11 Consumer sentiment hits 85.7 in September vs. 91.2 estimate
9/10 US import prices post biggest drop in seven months
9/10 Wholesale inventories slips 0.1% in July, versus expectations for 0.3% gain
9/8 World Bank chief economist warns Fed to delay rate rise
9/8 Prospect of Another Shutdown Looms as Congress Girds for Fights Over Spending
9/8 US small business confidence rises slightly in August
9/3 US trade deficit smallest in five months
9/3 US weekly jobless claims total 282,000 vs 275,000 estimate
9/2 US revised Q2 productivity up 3.3% vs 2.8% expected
8/31 Chicago PMI at 54.4 in Aug vs 54.5 reading expected
8/27 Second reading on Q2 US GDP at 3.7% vs 3.2% expected
8/25 Consumer confidence rebounds in August
8/20 US weekly jobless claims at 277,000 vs 272,000 estimate
8/19 US Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in July vs 0.2% increase expected
8/17 New York state factory activity tumbles to lowest since 2009: NY Fed
8/14 US consumer sentiment index at 92.9 in Aug vs 93.5 expected
8/14 US industrial production up 0.6% in July vs. 0.3% increase expected
8/14 US Producer Price Index rose 0.2% in July vs up 0.1% expected
8/11 US Q2 productivity rose 1.3% vs 1.6% increase expected
8/11 NFIB’s small business optimism index at 95.4 in July vs 94.3 expected
8/10 US consumer borrowing hits another record in June
8/7 US jobs post solid gains; unemployment flat
8/5 US services sector growth ticks up in July: Markit
8/5 US private sector jobs fall short in July
8/5 US international trade gap at $43.8B in June vs. $42.8B expected
8/3 US factory activity rises slightly in July: Markit
8/3 US personal income up 0.4% in June vs up 0.3% expected
7/31 Consumer sentiment hits 93.1 in July vs. 94 estimate
7/31 Chicago PMI at 54.7 in July vs 50.5 reading expected
7/30 First reading on Q2 US GDP at 2.3% vs 2.6% expected
7/28 US services sector growth picks up in July: Markit
7/28 Consumer confidence sinks in July
7/28 Home prices rose 4.9% in May vs 5.7% increase expected: S&P/Case-Shiller
7/27 Puerto Rico without enough cash for Aug 1 payment: Government
7/27 US business capital spending gauge rebounds solidly
7/23 US weekly jobless claims total 255,000 vs 285,000 est, lowest level since 1973
7/21 U.S. children living in poverty than before the Great Recession
7/17 US Initial Jobless Claims at Highest Level since February
7/16 US Trade Deficit Widens in May, but Is Below Market Expectations
7/14 June Retail Sales Drop Unexpectedly, May Sales Revised Lower
7/14 Europe fails to rid itself of deflation threat
7/9 IMF cuts global growth forecast to 3.3 percent in 2015, lowest since the crisis year 2009
6/30 U.S. consumer confidence rises; manufacturing still soft (good and bad news)
6/29 Puerto Rico governor says island can’t pay its public debt
6/25 U.S. Economy Shrinks by Most in Five Years
6/25 Economy in First Quarter Was Worse Than Everybody Thought
6/24 US manufacturing data offers ‘modest encouragement’
6/24 U.S. GDP Contracted Less Than Expected in Q1 2015
6/23 U.S. durable goods orders data suggest manufacturing stabilizing
5/29 When it can be illegal to withdraw your own money
5/26 100 DEFENDANTS INVESTIGATED BY SIGTARP HAVE BEEN SENTENCED TO PRISON (thank you Fed!)
5/20 5 big banks pay $5.4 billion for rigging currencies
5/17 Hedge Funds Close Doors, Facing Low Returns and Investor Scrutiny
5/14 Wholesale Deflation Strikes US Economy: April PPI Has Biggest Annual Drop In 5 Years
4/28 Homeownership rate lowest in 25 years
4/19 Savings I-Bonds May 2015 Interest Rate Update: Negative 1.6% Variable
4/1 World Inflation Falls To A New 5-Year Low
3/31 Millions of Americans have little to no money saved
3/29 Steve Keen Exclaims “The Fed Has Not Learnt Anything From The Crisis” (I mentioned economist Steve Keen in my book Buy Gold and Silver Safely.
3/29 For millions, 401(k) plans have fallen short
3/23 3/23 The world’s next credit crunch could make 2008 look like a hiccup
3/17 Home builder confidence falls in March—again
3/17 Manufacturing output takes surprise dip in February
3/17 Housing starts see biggest collapse since January 2007
The collapse of 17% was blamed on the weather, but the West region where I live has had fantastic weather, saw starts drop 18.2%. Of course the media doesn’t explain this anomaly.
3/13 Atlanta Fed Lowers GDP Forecast 50%
3/12 US retail sales fall for 3rd month as auto purchases drop
3/9 Strong U.S. jobs data raises odds of Fed rate rise, hits Asian stocks
3/8 Austria is fast becoming Europe’s latest debt nightmare – A mini-Greece is about to go off in Europe’s heartlands, and markets don’t even know it.
3/5 The jobs recovery is weaker than it seems
3/3 ISM: Manufacturing Takes Slight Hit – CNBC had this title for the data, but removed the story (original link included) ISM manufacturing index hits 52.9 in Feb vs. 53.2 expected
3/2 US consumer spending falls in January
2/27 Q4 GDP revised to 2.2%, versus expected growth of 2.1%
2/27 Chicago PMI Tumbles to Lowest Point Since July 2009 – CNBC had this title for the data, but removed the story (original link included) Chicago PMI drops to lowest since 2009 in February
2/27 US consumer sentiment slips in February on icy weather
2/26 Consumer price index falls 0.7% in January
2/24 U.S. services sector activity jumps in February
2/23 Record Low Baltic Dry Casualties Emerge: Third Dry-Bulk Shipper Files For Bankruptcy In Past 3 Weeks
2/12 US retail sales weak, consumer spending gauge barely rises
2/10 Wholesale Inventory Growth Slowest Since May 2013, Sales Tumble – Worst Ratio Since Lehman
2/10 NFIB Small Business Optimism falls to 3-month low in January
While compiling this research for the February and March data, I didn’t realize till writing this that Zerohedge had made a list of the economic misses and beats of the forecasts for February. Let it be known though, that Zerohedge is 99% almost always negative on the economy and should be considered the financial media antithesis of CNBC. I read both and many more and come to my own conclusions based on the source of the data, not the media spin on it.
MISS
- Personal Spending
- Construction Spending
- ISM New York
- Factory Orders
- Ward’s Domestic Vehicle Sales
- ADP Employment
- Challenger Job Cuts
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Nonfarm Productivity
- Trade Balance
- Unemployment Rate
- Labor Market Conditions Index
- NFIB Small Business Optimism
- Wholesale Inventories
- Wholesale Sales
- IBD Economic Optimism
- Mortgage Apps
- Retail Sales
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
- Business Inventories
- UMich Consumer Sentiment
- Empire Manufacturing
- NAHB Homebuilder Confidence
- Housing Starts
- Building Permits
- PPI
- Industrial Production
- Capacity Utilization
- Manufacturing Production
BEAT
- Personal Income
- Markit Services PMI
- Nonfarm Payrolls
- JOLTS