7
Jun

Gold and Silver Current Thoughts 6-7-2015

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Gold fell in the U.S. on Friday hitting a 7 week low and fitting in with my overall view of the low from November 5th, 2014 being taken out. This also means I see the mining stocks hitting lower lows.

The data that comes out this week will be what might move gold from a micro level, but the dollar still seems to be the key to gold’s direction. The dollar bounced on Friday and that send gold down. Because I am still dollar bullish, I still, after a few years now, say that gold will experience some rocky roads until it bottoms out. But I also think we get a point in time where gold and the dollar rise together. This may be hard for some to understand, but I have my reasoning and will explain it once my new book, “Illusions of Wealth” is released. I am working hard on it at present. It really should wake a few people up or at least help investors navigate the financial waters with more awareness.

dollar index 6-7

Interest rates have also shot up a bit and while some may say this is bad for gold, I actually think the Fed is somewhat worried about the spike up when the data doesn’t back this move higher, except for of course the unemployment reports coming in with good numbers. While the “official” rate that CNBC touts and the Fed speaks of has fallen to 5.5%, the U-6 rate is still double digits at 10.8%.

Unemployment rate

This is the number that I follow but it is ignored by the financial media. Why is it ignored? Because they want you to invest in stocks as it keeps paying their bills. Why would they tell you negative news and have you pull out of stocks?

When we see this number move higher, that could very well be the end of the stock market run. While we may get a pullback for the short term, I do think the stock market has one more higher high ahead and this could coincide with the final smack down in gold I have been writing about. This is of course my selfish ideal situation as I want my book released right before this occurs. 🙂

Here is the upcoming data for the week. Because we have so many foreign readers I have decided to add more data than U.S. only data. It also is market moving and investors should be aware of it.

Time Cur. Event Forecast Previous
Sunday, June 07
19:50 JPY Adjusted Current Account 1.45T 2.07T
19:50 JPY GDP (QoQ) 0.7% 0.6%
19:50 JPY Current Account n.s.a. 1.696T 2.795T
19:50 JPY GDP (YoY) 2.7% 2.4%
22:10 CNY Trade Balance 44.95B 34.13B
22:10 CNY Exports (YoY) -5.0% -6.4%
22:10 CNY Imports (YoY) -10.7% -16.2%
Monday, June 08
Holiday Australia – Queen’s Birthday
01:30 EUR Investing.com EUR/USD Index   23.0%
01:30 GBP Investing.com GBP/USD Index   38.9%
01:30 CAD Investing.com USD/CAD Index   42.7%
01:30 JPY Investing.com USD/JPY Index   61.9%
01:30 AUD Investing.com AUD/USD Index   49.4%
01:30 NZD Investing.com NZD/USD Index   48.3%
01:30 CHF Investing.com USD/CHF Index   44.9%
01:30 USD Investing.com Gold Index   54.0%
01:30 USD Investing.com S&P 500 Index   25.8%
02:00 EUR German Industrial Production (MoM) 0.5% -0.5%
02:00 EUR German Trade Balance 19.4B 19.3B
08:15 CAD Housing Starts 185.0K 181.8K
08:30 CAD Building Permits (MoM) 3.4% 11.6%
19:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) 1.0% -2.4%
21:30 AUD Home Loans (MoM) -2.0% 1.6%
21:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence   3
21:30 CNY CPI (YoY) 1.3% 1.5%
21:30 CNY PPI (YoY) -4.5% -4.6%
21:30 CNY CPI (MoM) 0.0% -0.2%
Tuesday, June 09
01:45 CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. 3.3% 3.3%
01:45 CHF Unemployment Rate n.s.a. 3.3% 3.3%
03:15 CHF CPI (MoM) 0.1% -0.2%
04:30 GBP Trade Balance -9.85B -10.12B
04:30 GBP Trade Balance Non-EU -3.00B -3.16B
05:00 EUR GDP (QoQ)P 0.4% 0.4%
05:00 EUR GDP (YoY)P 1.0% 1.0%
10:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings 5.030M 4.994M
16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Stock   1.800M
20:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment   6.4%
22:50 AUD RBA Governor Stevens Speaks    
Wednesday, June 10
04:30 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) 0.1% 0.5%
04:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.1% 0.4%
10:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate   0.4%
10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories   -1.948M
13:00 USD 10-Year Note Auction   2.237%
14:00 USD Federal Budget Balance -97.5B 157.0B
16:00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks    
17:00 NZD Interest Rate Decision 3.50% 3.50%
17:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement    
17:00 NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement    
17:05 NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks    
19:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance 35% 33%
19:50 JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions 3.2 2.4
21:30 AUD Employment Change 11.0K -2.9K
21:30 AUD Unemployment Rate 6.2% 6.2%
21:30 AUD Full Employment Change   -21.9K
Thursday, June 11
01:30 EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) -0.1% -0.1%
01:30 CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 12.0% 12.0%
01:30 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) 6.0% 5.9%
02:45 EUR French CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.1%
02:45 EUR French HICP (MoM) 0.2% 0.1%
08:30 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.7% 0.1%
08:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) 0.8% -0.3%
08:30 CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) 0.1% 0.0%
08:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) 1.1% 0.0%
08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 277K 276K
08:30 USD Export Price Index (MoM) 0.2% -0.7%
10:00 USD Business Inventories (MoM) 0.2% 0.1%
11:15 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks    
18:30 NZD Business NZ PMI   51.8
Friday, June 12
00:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) 1.0% 1.0%
00:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 0.4% -1.0%
03:00 EUR Spanish CPI (YoY) -0.2% -0.6%
03:00 EUR Spanish HICP (YoY) -0.3% -0.3%
04:00 CNY New Loans 860.0B 707.9B
05:00 EUR Industrial Production (MoM) 0.3% -0.3%
08:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) 0.1% -0.2%
08:30 USD PPI (MoM) 0.4% -0.4%
10:00 USD Michigan Consumer SentimentP 91.5 90.7
10:00 USD Michigan Consumer ExpectationsP 85.0 84.2
15:30 EUR CFTC EUR speculative net positions   -165.5K
15:30 GBP CFTC GBP spe
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About Doug Eberhardt

Doug Eberhardt is a 28 year financial services veteran and precious metals broker selling gold and silver at 1% over wholesale cost. Doug has written a book to help investors understand how gold and silver fit into a diversified portfolio, how to buy gold and silver, and what metals to buy. The book; “Buy Gold and Silver Safely” is available by clicking here Contact phone number for Buy Gold and Silver Safely is 888-604-6534

Disclosure:

Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with capital you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Purchase/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve gains or losses similar to those discussed in this outlook. The past track record of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc. discussed in this outlook and the product materials are for illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations. All ideas and material presented are entirely those of the author.