I have to say that the title of my last article from yesterday fit the action in the “Data is Dead; All Hail the Fed!” I followed that up with the questions; What Does this Data Tell Us? Does the Market Care?
The market ignored the data and we actually heard Janet Yellen say the Fed won’t raise rates in April, but could shortly thereafter. I wrote recently that the Fed isn’t thinking about raising rates any time soon, but may do so just so save credibility. This is the “talk the talk” I spoke about yesterday. She followed it up with the comment; “depending on how the economy evolves.” HELLO? Why do people believe what comes out of the Fed? Do they not have a clue or are they really good at keeping the truth from us with neuro-linguistic presuppositions?
I think Zerohedge summed up what the Fed did today quite well;
- *FED DROPS PATIENT STANCE ON INTEREST-RATE RISE GUIDANCE (hawk)
- *FED SAYS ECONOMY `HAS MODERATED SOMEWHAT,’ JOB MARKET IMPROVED (dove)
- *FED SEES 2015 GDP GROWTH OF 2.3%-2.7% VS 2.6%-3% DEC. EST. (dove)
- *FED WANTS TO BE `REASONABLY CONFIDENT’ ON INFLATION FOR LIFTOFF (hawk)
So, despite previous Fed promises, we have seen dismal macro data, no consumption gain from low gas prices, and USD strength headwinds; and yet, as they shift growth expectations in their dot plot, we’re supposed to believe that. The bottom line: Fed to Markets: “you’re on your own”-ish: uncertainty is back.
The dollar took a hit today falling to 97.68 as I type and gold rose from a low of $1,144.90 to a high of $1,175.80 and is presently sitting at $1,167.90. Silver fared a little better going from $15.36 at its low to a high of $16.20 and is sitting at $15.99 presently. Oil also shot up and Natural Gas had a 4% plus lift too.
You could have played almost any ETF long in the following list and scalped something from it AFTER the announcement. We got a spike up quickly, but the trend was already moving higher. Whether or not something was leaked is uncertain, but a good trader would have noticed this trend pre-announcement. And a good trader could have also waited for the Fed decision and still do well (that’s what I did).
The list of good trades were: TNA, SVXY, UWTI, JNUG, NUGT, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, SLV, UGAZ and RUSL. Some of these I have been following and talking about in my Current Thoughts. You could have pretty much played any one of them and taken profit today.
Have we bottomed in gold and silver and we’re now off to the races? Not even close. We may get a continuation higher, but let the market dictate to you how to play it. We have already seen an after hours reversal in almost all of the above.
We’ve been through this before. The Fed needs to see inflation and they aren’t. It’s deflation they are fighting. Interest rates are below 2% again. Money Velocity is at a standstill. More QE is a possibility and dare I say a necessity at some point. They can’t let Draghi and the ECB have all the fun. You know I have been bullish on the stock market and today was a nice move again with some indices breaking to higher highs. Gold and silver will have their fun for a bit and then pull back once again.
Please note all of the daily green arrows below as well as the daily red arrows. You need a weekly green arrow to confirm the trend. Patience for a good set up has its rewards.
Gold and Silver Stock Mining Package – Release date shooting for Friday 3/20/2015 – If you are signed up, look forward to an email announcement this week. If you haven’t signed up, read below.
The mining package that we will be offering has been waiting for a release at a time that I feel would coincide with my overall view of gold and silver prices reaching the lower targets I think they can fall too. Many so called experts last year in July thought the miners would take off and next thing you know they broke to lower lows. Some called this latest run up the final fall for the miners. It obviously hasn’t been and I know that’s frustrating for many who are long or have been long for some time. There is a reason why I have been patient with the release of the mining package. There is also a reason why I chose the stocks I did and I’m excited about their potential. The mining package release date will be announced soon. I sent out an email to all who have subscribed recently with an update. If you haven’t signed up, read the following and express your interest.
For those who haven’t signed up; We will be coming out with a mining package where we pick what we believe to be the best mining stocks to buy based on my research the last 8 months. We have been patient in releasing this because of the timing in purchasing these mining stocks can be tricky. We were one of the only one’s who recommended selling mining stocks in September of 2010 when the HUI was trading at 512.56. Much has transpired in the mining industry since that call with many companies disappearing or being taken over. Today many companies are struggling and if we do get a further pullback in the price of gold and silver, more companies will go bankrupt. Knowing which companies have the best opportunity moving forward will be key to you getting returns that we believe will be in the 100% to 500% range, and possibly much higher for some of the miners. This package will be released in the next few weeks and we will announce it on the site.
If you are interested in this Gold and Silver Stock Mining Package let us know by clicking this link below and completing the form.
Doug Eberhardt is a 28 year financial services veteran and precious metals broker selling gold and silver at 1% over wholesale cost. Doug has written a book to help investors understand how gold and silver fit into a diversified portfolio, how to buy gold and silver, and what metals to buy. The book; “Buy Gold and Silver Safely” is available by clicking here Contact phone number for Buy Gold and Silver Safely is 888-604-6534
Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with capital you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Purchase/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve gains or losses similar to those discussed in this outlook. The past track record of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc. discussed in this outlook and the product materials are for illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations. All ideas and material presented are entirely those of the author.