Gold and Silver Current Thoughts 11-02-2015

Good morning,Mixed pre-market that I wouldn’t trade. No real news coming this week until Friday’s jobs report. Many Fed members speaking this week and I’m sure most of them will “talk the talk” of raising rates but come December I don’t think the data will allow them to. The only caveat is they have been talking about it for so long and not doing it gives them less credibility so I hold out for a token raise only to be followed by more QE in 2016.TNA/TZA both down at present and UDOW/SDOW both up tells you things are convoluted.NIKKEI closed down 399 points, Europe mixed and US futures all green but barely. UVXY/SVXY might signal direction today.
YANG is up a little bit again pre-market
UVXY up a hair
TBT up a bit signally more strength in the market, but it’s early
ERY and DWTI both up
DGAZ up 9.75% this morning following its green monthly trend again.
Gold and silver both down along with the minersStill too early to call anything but my preliminary thoughts are to stay away from the market indexes until we get a clearer picture.Watch DGAZ for a higher high to trade and I’m not as interested in a bounce in UGAZ today, but will keep an eye out anyway for a move.
DWTI looks like it may get some play and is typically good for a couple points on higher highs on up days like this. Can sometimes get as much as 5 points but I wouldn’t get too greedy.
Mining stocks don’t look to do much just yet. The dollar down is a mixed signal to trade. Prefer to have gold/silver/dollar cooperating with the direction of the miners to provide more direction for the trade. I’ll lean long JDST/DUST but would jump to JNUG/NUGT in a heart beat if they hit higher highs.I will wait till after the market opens to look for trades. Otherwise follow the guidance from the report as to overall trend/direction/prices.

Going into the market open it looks like we are trending higher overall but I don’t see a lot of strength worth trading.JDST up 2% pre-market with gold down looks to be one to watch. It’s slightly more positive percentage wise than JDST. On the first pullback and then break of the next high, it is a buy. The first pullback can come quickly or take some time to develop. I don’t recommend the buy at the open trade until we get a green on the weekly, so it is best to wait for the pullback.DWTI a little weaker than earlier. Keep an eye on both DWTI and UWTI for a bounce higher. The trend of late has been UWTI.DGAZ up 11.55% now and over 14.09 we would be 40% higher than first entry. For swing traders, (versus day traders) it is best to trade the first green weekly and hold till you are happy with profit or if it goes green monthly to hold till it goes red weekly. We haven’t had that occur yet but I did recommend taking some profit once we were 30% higher on a big up move. We have since played a reversal in UGAZ, which at some point will become a 30% gain too. For now, DGAZ is the trend and I just keep an eye on UGAZ.

TQQQ and FAS are the two strongest market ETFs.
RUSL up 2.53% and has in the past been a good higher high play.
BRZU up 1.22%
YANG fell a bit and YINN may become a play later.
EDC up 2.58% and another potential.The one’s that are higher pre-market offer the best opportunities for higher high plays.

Gold down 7.50 at the market open.
Quick pullback in JDST and DST.JDST a buy over 30.11
DUST a buy over 16.50I usually like to wait a bit longer but watch gold for clues and make sure it doesn’t bounce.

US stocks higher.
RUSL at the high of the day and waiting for first pullback.

YINN and YANG battling it out. With higher market YINN is attractive here at 21.77

Market on its first pullback. This is where we set up higher highs if you were to go that route.Gold still weak and JDST and DUST set up for their break of the highs now.RUSL is the most intriguing to me. Over 16.27 should be good for a little move for profit.
DGAZ good for a scalp over 13.46.TNA, FAS, UPRO, SPLX and UDOW the biggest market index movers (in that order). Look to trade the higher highs of those.

I’m not going to ignore JNUG and if it moves past 39.28 I would try and scalp it only since it is against the trend.

UWTI over 10.44 and I would go long too, but with larger shares and to scalp it since against trend. DWTI falling.

GASL just hit a higher high at 19.55. I don’t like it. I prefer a clearer picture and if you do trade it expect some big volatility, but it can pay off big if it gets going. 18.60 is the low and a must stop. Spreads too big for new traders or those who can’t handle volatility.

JDST and DUST moving up now. 15 cents to highs.

RUSL about to break the higher high and I do like it as it has stayed strong all morning. It’s a buy at 16.28.

Gold at low of day. JDST and DUST trying.

JDST broke higher. DUST lagging a bit. GLD did not break low of day yet.DUST just broke higher.Both JDST and DUST are in play now at those higher high marks I mentioned. Stops should be 25 cents below, but they have to keep hitting higher highs and gold needs to fall. GLD breaks 108.52 and that should do the trick.

UVXY is creeping up interestingly enough. Over 28.30 and it would become a good play for a scalp, depending on if markets turned.

JDST and DUST first attempt to take off was rather pathetic. You can keep stops a little wider than 25 cents. GLD still right there where it can break down and if it does, JDST and DUST can gain momentum.

GLD bounced a bit here by 5 cents and miners fell a bit after reaching new highs. We prefer days to have more confidence in the gold trade when gold and miners are up and dollar is down. Today wasn’t one of those days. But DUST only 2 cents from high again and JDST lagging the high a bit. Keep an eye on GLD. I Don’t like getting stopped out on higher highs, but they come and we move on.

GASL over 20 now to 20.24 for those aggressive traders who may have jumped in at 19.56. I would take quicker profits or sell half and let rest ride with a moving stop up.

UWTI up 13 cents now from the 10.44 mark I recommended it. When up 25 cents, move stop up to break even. Don’t be afraid to take profit.

RUSL from our 16.28 buy is at 16.43 bid and doing well. I had said I liked it more than most. Slow and steady.

I said YINN was attractive at 21.77 and it is 21.94 now and moving slowly higher. Move stops to break even if in it.

JDST and DUST doing well. Move stops up to break even now.

As far as “when” to take profits on any trade, if you are new to this, take profits earlier as another trade always comes along. If you are an aggressive trader, manage your expectations with your risk. Above all, if the trade goes against you, keep a stop (rule #1).

There goes GLD under 108.52.

I’d move stops up on JDST and DUST to where you take profit now. Where you take profit is up to you. GLD keeps falling, you keep holding.

There’s a 7 cent bounce in GLD. Pullback started for JDST and DUST. This is where it tests the longs. Natural occurrance.

We like seeing GLD back at its low so quickly. Needs to break 108.46 and that will give you the signal to move stops up in JDST or DUST.

GLD quick bounce back up again and JDST/DUST pulling back. If you keep a rolling 25 cents stop loss you would be out now.

YINN, UWTI, GASL, all doing well.

JDST and DSLV are now green on the weekly and buy the dip mode. I dont’ like this bounce in GLD right now. It is 10 cents from the high of the day and jumped up big off the low.

I said in the chat room to be cautious with GLD over 108.61. It is pushing up against it now.

This is why I make comments about taking profit. When you trade leveraged ETFs, you always get pullbacks. If you take your profit and wait for the next trade, which very well could be JDST and DUST again if you buy the dip, it’s a smart way to profit.

GASL up 1.40 from call and seems to have legs. I would consider taking more off the table, locking in profit. Can it go up 20%? Sure. It’s up 8.14% right now and I like profit. Simple as that.

JDST and DUST hanging in there as GLD tried to get over that 108.61/108.62 bid/ask mark and couldn’t.

The dog of the day is UGAZ. DGAZ just couldn’t get going to a higher high so on this weakness we have to wonder whether once again we get a reversal and can ride UGAZ up. Over 3.50 and I would be a buyer of UGAZ for a scalp since it is opposite the trend.

It looks like things are slowing down everywhere after the morning rush.Profit could have been had on multiple plays. I recommend trading the morning markets and then go about your day. Maybe come back for the last half hour of trading. There is always something moving.Yes, you can sit and watch the lunch hours of trading (basically I call lunch from after the first hour of trading till the last hour of trading) and there will be some plays to catch which I will call. But I think there is something to one’s quality of life that needs to be considered too. Gamblers sit and gamble all day till there money is gone. That’s what lunch does to traders. They think there is a move and then it reverses. The risk vs. reward just isn’t there. Not always, but I have seen it many, many times.

On a move over 108.62 now in GLD, we have to eye JNUG as a potential play. DUST breaking down.

Aggressive traders can buy JNUG at 38.00 here and keep a stop at 37.75. GLD needs to stay above 108.58 for this to work. I don’t always call an opposite trend when an ETF just turned green on the weekly but just noticing things. Scalp only for 25 to 50 cents. Trend is still with gold lower and JDST higher.

DGAZ climbed back up never giving UGAZ a chance to go over 3.50. High of day is 13.46 for DGAZ and worth a trade long if you are not already in it. Tough to play those at lunch though so I’m not as big a fan.

There’s the first 50 cents in JNUG. Actually bid is 38.72 now. Move stops up every 25 cents it moves higher.

If JNUG can get past 39.27, it can fly. Not saying it will, but that would be a gift. 38.90 now.

UWTI if you didn’t take the profit we are out flat. It moved up past that 25 cent profit area and some may have taken that profit when I spoke about how I trade mornings and gonig about your day.JNUG was good for a point on that move.DWTI above 97.50 should get you a point or 2.YINN a little weaker now and stops should be at break even if you didn’t take profit.RUSL still hanging in there but 16 cents off the high it hit.Market overall stronger today. TNA leading the way up 2.97%.

JNUG trying here, got within15 cents from the days high on that last move.

There goes the higher high on JNUG. Up 1.38 from the call at 38 now. Keep moving stops up. GLD has not cooperated with the latter part of this move.

GLD never gave JNUG the love it needed by continuing higher and I am not sure how much JNUG has in it. That was a fast almost 4% move and I would consider it done.

GASL fell from the high at 21.07 and now at 20. That’s (again) why you take profit on these high fliers. You never look back and say; “I could have” because you are happy with profit. All we try to do is take profit when handed and look for the next opportunity. It’s officially lunch now and trades will be hard to come by.

GLD is trying to go to a higher high at 108.77, creeping up. JNUG had a pullback to 39.36 ask and 39.19 bid (large spread). tough call here so I’ll sit out.

See how what I call lunch is difficult to trade? JDST and JNUG for example; we made the clear trade in JDST to start the day. We got a reversal and jumped on JNUG for over a point. Since that time we have had JNUG fall while JDST rose and just now a reversal in both. I prefer to sit this kind of churning of accounts out. That’s why I mean by “lunch.”It doesn’t mean that a trade won’t pop up, but so far I don’t see anything. Most everything is mid-range. Good time to look at the more macro picture in the article above and see what is being set up for a good trade based on the larger picture if we are hitting any target prices or resistance.

RUSL high of day at 16.54. That’s what we like to see on one’s I like!

A little news analysis; El-Erian sees 30% US recession risk by 2017http://cnb.cx/1WrDNKNI see 100% US recession risk by 2017. If you analyzed data along, and not stock market euphoria, we have had negative data all year long. That’s why the Fed hasn’t raised rates and will be hard pressed to in December.

We had GDX turn green and JNUG and NUGT trying to move higher. GLD right at high of day. This can still be a good trade. I think you can buy JNUG soon (39.62 now) and NUGT (34.65 and at higher high so like more).

DWTI is close to a buy and a possible 2 point run here on a tick over 97.60. 99.60 would be the goal. Chance it breaks 100.

This is a nice little move in JNUG and NUGT for us. NUGT is already up a point and JNUG more. You might want to take some profit but by all means, move your stop up.

DGAZ is 2 cents from the high now. It is a slow mover. When it reaches a high like this after spending all day trying to get there, I am not sure sparks will fly. It is not even up to where it was pre-market.

UVXY will be setting itself up for a nice long trade this week probably sometime.
UGAZ will be setting itself up for a nice long trade this week probably sometime.Keep them on your radar.

For aggressive traders they may want to try a swing trade on UVXY and UGAZ at these prices. Small shares. I have done so, but this is very, very aggressive.

GASL has crawled all the way up to where it is close to its high again. I would be a buyer for a scalp again at 21.08. They can pull the rug on it too, so keep a stop. Needs to get over 22 to have a chance at any longer term play.

DGAZ the sparks didn’t fly like I thought, at least not yet. It is currently 14 cents off the high, below the original higher high. So far the bottom feeding in UGAZ is 4 cents off its low. This is a swing trade if anyone took it, just predicting like I did a couple times last week for profit a technical bounce. Doesn’t mean it will always work but I like the risk reward on it so try it sometimes.

If you took profit on JNUG and NUGT you might get one more chance here to scalp a higher high. GLD is NOT cooperating so I don’t like the trade as much as the other two times.If you are happy with profit today, take that smile home with you and wait for tomorrow. No need to give it back.

JNUG and NUGT did fail to move to higher highs there. Gold is back under 108.70. I am not sure we have anymore trades in either long or short the miners now. Will keep my eyes open.

JNUG falling even more along with NUGT. Been a crazy up and down day for these but if you are buying the dips in JDST you are typically rewarded. I personally like to see what’s out there and trade accordingly, locking profit from whatever moves for me. Today it was both JNUG and JDST.GASL within 8 cents of another potential play but I would go home flat no matter what, hopefully with end of day push 50 cents or more where I would take that to the bank.Market liked to move higher all day. All I can say is it has been the trend of the green weekly and that should be your macro view for direction. It is however somewhat mixed and more difficult to play but today was a clear signal.For the very risky plays;UVXY finally bouncing off that break of 25.
UGAZ can’t get over 3.40 and is a deer in headlights.

DWTI did break 97.50 but only moved a half point and failed. This doesn’t happen too often. If you are going to go for a quick 2 point gain and it fails, 95.50, a 2 point stop should be the bail price. It is green for the day and we may get a bounce into tomorrow morning where if it gaps up over 98.08, I would sell into that or move your stop to breakeven at 97.50 and see if we can’t get 5 points out of it to 102 range.

UVXY fell from that bounce and at low of the day again as the market moves higher. TNA, SVXY, FAS, UPRO, SPXL, TQQQ, UDOW, SSO all had nice days. This could have brought the gold miners higher as gold has been down all day.

Another stick save in UVXY where it broke to a lower low by 4 cents and probably trapped some techincal sellers and then bounced up again. Still have a ways to go before close. Anything can happen.RUSL still moving higher.

We’re getting some early signals of some of the market ETFs turning green on the monthly. We’re not quite there yet, but this is the first signs of a good bullish trend. It goes against UVXY mind you, so I am looking to keep a stop on my aggressive play or see how it plays out by morning. I don’t mind losing on “very, very risky” plays and I am still up on UGAZ looking for a move tomorrow over 3.50 which would allow me to sell for some nice profit.Just because we get a green monthly doesn’t mean we go “all in” when the market is telling us it is volatile. Art Cashin, someone on the floor I truly respect, just had this to say; Cashin: ‘Santa Claus’ rally will be cut in half. This is simply a “Draghi” trade higher and I don’t trust it. My goodness the market trades on central bank comments, not on reality. But I listen to people like Cashin. He says “the data doesn’t support a rate raise.” This is worth a listen to;http://cnb.cx/1RKYQl1

Ok, end of day coming up. Gold fell to lower levels and JDST trying to push green again. I have to lean towards JDST now at 28.97 for an end of day run. Risk vs. reward is there. DUST too at 15.71.

Failed attempt by JDST. I would be done with it with a small loss.

RUSL is finishing at the high of the day and should gap up nicely tomorrow. This was our most consistent trade and all in all we did well in quite a few today. I’ll wrap things up with the nightly report coming out in a bit.

Markets are leaning long but I don’t fully trust them.

Hope you had a profitable trading day.